429 E Mulberry

Rogers, AR 72756

$198,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 964 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,503/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax + insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-181/mo
• Annual: $-2,173/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $55,440

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-181 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (24.1% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($186k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#1 in AR, #98 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 60% / reading 48%, grade C, #72 of 454 statewide, top 16%, 488 students, 61% FRL); Lingle Middle School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 766 students, 56% FRL); Rogers Heritage High School (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #138 of 292 statewide, top 48%, 2,080 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 529 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $198k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.5% in Rogers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.