31204 Peach Leaf Dr

Winchester, CA 92596

$608,990D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,577/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,194
• Tax + insurance: −$441
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $-809/mo
• Annual: $-9,703/yr
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• 1% rule: 0.59%
• Cash to close: $170,517

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $609k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-809 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (41.3% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($600k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $358k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Winchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.