31204 Peach Leaf Dr · Winchester, CA 92596

$608,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · Land · 29 Days on market

Built 2026 6,136 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Residence 1576, designed with efficient, yet comfortable space planning in mind. This home is single-story with 1,576 square feet, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an island kitchen with pantry closet, interior laundry room, and a 2-car garage pre-plumbed for an electric car. Among the features and finishes, homeowners will appreciate the unparalleled peace of mind of owning America's Smart Home-a whole-home network of Wi-Fi enabled smart home devices by brands you trust, all conveniently controlled from your smartphone, or the sleek touch screen panel mounted near the entry of each new home.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Island kitchen
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• ALTO SHAKER-STYLE CABINETRY
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• ENSUITE WITH DOUBLE SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Juniper subdivision; Builder name: DR Horton
• Financial info: Subject to special assessments and Mello-Roos
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Community features include curbs, street lighting, and sidewalks; Community of 188 units

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway (concrete); 2 uncovered parking spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke and carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: House; One story; Front entry; Faces west; Under construction
• Construction: Built by DR Horton (builder source); Model 1576
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Stucco exterior with drywall interior walls; Block wall and vinyl fencing; Landscaped front yard with sprinklers (front and drip system); Sprinklers present; No pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen open to family room; Kitchen island; Quartz counters; Breakfast counter/bar; Energy Star appliances; Built-in range; Gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Gas water heater; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level; Primary suite
• Flooring: See remarks
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; Double sinks in primary bath; Walk-in shower in primary bath; Shower-over-tub in at least one bath; Privacy toilet door; Bathtub; Low-flow toilets and low-flow shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Solar heating; Central high-efficiency cooling
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Home automation system; Recessed lighting; Open floor plan; Front entry; One level; Double pane windows with low-e glass and screens; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Individual laundry room; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $609k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-809 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $466k (23.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $358k (41.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $358k (41.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Winchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Menifee Union Elementary (suburban): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #434 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $65k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $61k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$105k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($600k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $357,711 (41.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.69%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $269,390
• Equity at exit: $548,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $814,445
• Equity at exit: $1,183,134

Cash invested: $170,517 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,577 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,194
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,246/yr
• Insurance: −$254
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $-809

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,601

Max offer price $466,148

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,248
• Closing costs: $18,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Autumn Blaze Dr , CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,075	$1.95	2d	1	0.15mi
31319 Autumn Blaze Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1576	$3,350	$2.13	1d	1	0.21mi
31058 Water Beech Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1705	$3,900	$2.29	2d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $608,990 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $608,990 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $608,990 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $608,990 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $608,990 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $608,990 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $608,990 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $608,990 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $608,990 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $608,990 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $608,990 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $608,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $608,990 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    listed $608,990 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Discover the Residence 1576, designed with efficient, yet comfortable space planning in mind. This home is single-story with 1,576 square feet, 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, an island kitchen with pantry closet, interior laundry room, and a 2-car garage pre-plumbed for an electric car. Among the features and finishes, homeowners will appreciate the unparalleled peace of mind of owning America's Smart Home-a whole-home network of Wi-Fi enabled smart home devices by brands you trust, all conveniently controlled from your smartphone, or the sleek touch screen panel mounted near the entry of each new home.

15. 2026-05-20
    listed $608,990 Active
16. 2025-12-30
    soldstatus $10,000,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,246 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,628 · $386/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,382/yr (+$199/mo · 106.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,925
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,113
• − Property taxes: −$2,246
• − Insurance: −$3,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,434
• − Management: −$3,434
• − Depreciation: −$17,716
• Taxable loss: −$21,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,648/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Menifee Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0624540
• Math proficiency: 43% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $58,228
• Composite: 45.17/100
• National rank: #5790
• State rank: #434 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-93.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $608,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-20 Listed $608,990 CRMLS
• 2025-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $10,000,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+935.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,246 · +935.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.