3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,137 sqft ·
Built 1933
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 101 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,056/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$419
Tax + insurance
−$133
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$222
Net cashflow
$282/mo
Annual
$3,382/yr
Cap rate
10.53%
Cash-on-cash
15.12%
DSCR
1.67
1% rule
1.32%
Cash to close
$22,372
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $786 of equity ($552 loan paydown + $234 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
Location reads 72/100 on livability (#206 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Rich Valley Elementary (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #696 of 1,108 statewide, top 66%, 130 students, 92% FRL); Northwood Middle (math 42% / reading 67%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 151 students, 86% FRL); Northwood High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 240 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CDG4WGEE9SGH4Q
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29