3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
504 sqft ·
Built 1920
· Townhouse
· Active
· 119 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,839/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,175
Tax + insurance
−$416
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$386
Net cashflow
$-138/mo
Annual
$-1,655/yr
Cap rate
5.55%
Cash-on-cash
-2.64%
DSCR
0.88
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$62,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $224k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $200k (10.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (17.9% below list).
It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $184k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.9%/yr); 143 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $152k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
At $1,839/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 966% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29