351 River Dr

Lobelville, TN 37097

$100,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built 1987 · Manufactured · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $798/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-61/mo
• Annual: $-727/yr
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-727/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (20.2% below list).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#321 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Perry County (rural): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #124 of 139 in TN (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lobelville Elementary (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 239 students, 0% FRL); Perry County High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 294 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Perry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.