351 River Dr · Lobelville, TN 37097

$100,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 235 Days on market

Built 1987 1.10 ac lot ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your peaceful retreat minutes from the scenic Buffalo River! Set on a full acre within city limits, this cozy 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a rare opportunity with two separate lot sites for future expansion or a second dwelling. Whether you're seeking a weekend escape, a rental property, or a peaceful place to call home, this property is full of potential. $1,000 Lender credit with appraisal credit available! Conventional AND FHA financing Call or text Melissa at 615-933-9485 with any questions. Recently completed engineering report and FHA appraisal.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 234 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No designated parking spaces reported
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s); Fire alarm; Security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level; Renovated
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: 1.1-acre lot; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven and electric range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Combination living/dining area; No basement; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors, fire alarm and security system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-61 ($-727/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $91k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#321 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, crime F.
• Perry County (rural): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #124 of 139 in TN (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lobelville Elementary (math 27% / reading 17%, grade F, #601 of 952 statewide, top 66%, 239 students, 0% FRL); Perry County High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #294 of 332 statewide, top 91%, 294 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 27 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Perry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Perry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,806 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.60%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $26,253
• Equity at exit: $64,171

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $79,955
• Equity at exit: $117,517

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37097

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 27
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $-61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $91,230

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $100,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $100,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $100,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 226 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $100,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-03-13
    price $100,000
16. 2026-03-13
    status Active
17. 2026-02-03
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2026-02-01
    status Active
19. 2026-02-01
    historical Active Under Contract
20. 2025-12-10
    status Active
21. 2025-07-12
    status Pending
22. 2025-05-28
    listed $115,000 Active
23. 2025-05-08
    historical $115,000
24. 2023-03-27
    status Pending
25. 2023-03-27
    historical
26. 2023-03-11
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$766
• − Management: −$766
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable loss: −$2,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$592
• After-tax cash flow: $-135/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Perry County
• NCES district ID: 4703390
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,903
• Composite: 15.44/100
• National rank: #9315
• State rank: #124 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lobelville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #21618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lobelville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 2,118

Population outlook (Perry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,645 people
• By 2030: 7,424 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 7,008 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 6,656 · -12.9%
• By 2075: 5,907 · -22.7%
• By 2100: 5,253 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Perry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.5) · D 15.0% · R 84.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -60.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -69.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.5 2020: R+63.0 2016: R+55.0 2012: R+22.4 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.21%
• Current HPI: 348.0235
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $100,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-03 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-12 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-28 Listed $115,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Coming Soon $115,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-27 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-27 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-11 Coming Soon — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid