13562 Jenkins Rd

Red Creek, NY 13143

$139,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 2004 · Other · Pending · 19 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,368/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $23/mo
• Annual: $270/yr
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $39,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (2.2% below list).
• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $137k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.