13562 Jenkins Rd · Red Creek, NY 13143

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Other public records · 19 Days on market

Built 2004 4.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1456 sf Manufactured Ranch Home on 4 ACRES built in 2004 ! PRIVACY AWAITS - Sitting waaay back off the road on the perfect parklike setting surrounded by woods! 3 Bedrooms and 2 FULL BATHS ! Like new Elevator / LIFT included! Along with an Open floor plan making the home fully accessible. Huge Kitchen with an abundance of cabinets and countertops! Large living room. Large den could be a 4th bedroom ! 2 Decks ! Storage building / garage ! NEWER ROOF (2000 +/-) , Thermopane windows.

Key facts

• Elevator lift
• Parklike setting
• 4 acres

Tags

• MANUFACTURED RANCH HOME
• 4 ACRES
• PARKLIKE SETTING
• ELEVATOR LIFT
• HUGE KITCHEN
• 2 DECKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $23 ($270/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (2.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (2.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#751 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Red Creek Central School District (rural): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #415 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $136,783 (2.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.69%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $36,994
• Equity at exit: $82,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $109,324
• Equity at exit: $145,700

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13143

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,368 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,193/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-05
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-28
   price $139,900
3. 2025-10-16
   listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,193 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$3,193
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,313
• − Management: −$1,313
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$2,011
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$483
• After-tax cash flow: $753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Creek Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624210
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,249
• Composite: 41.35/100
• National rank: #3495
• State rank: #415 of 590 in NY

Livability — Red Creek

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #751
• US rank: #14338

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,405

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 4% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Current HPI: 256.6896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+11.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $139,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $125,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,193 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.