15430--15436 Meyer Rd

California City, CA 93501

$1,950,000B

468 bd · 324.0 ba · 2,400 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $25,466/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax + insurance: −$2,644
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,348
• Net cashflow: $7,248/mo
• Annual: $86,975/yr
• Cap rate: 10.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.93%
• DSCR: 1.71
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $546,000

Investor read

• This is a 18 × 26-bed/18.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($87k/yr) — positive. Per door: $403/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($25k rent vs $1.95M).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.83M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.83M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($13k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#1,329 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mojave Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #411 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 278 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.65M; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (1.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $546k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$140k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.2% in California City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.