653 W Sunset

Mancos, CO 81328

$220,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 95 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,606/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $755/mo
• Annual: $9,056/yr
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#68 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancos School District Re-6 (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #101 of 176 in CO (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Montezuma County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $220k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.4% in Mancos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.