653 W Sunset · Mancos, CO 81328

$220,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

Built 1991 0.37 ac lot Est $349k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE IMPROVEMENT! PLUS Sellers are offering a concession at closing for new flooring to those who offer full price! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home in the heart of Mancos offers a great opportunity for someone looking to get into the Mancos market at an approachable price. Situated on a spacious . 37-acre lot, the property features views of the surrounding ridges and a fully fenced backyard with plenty of room for pets, gardening, or future improvements. There is plenty of off street parking. The home does need some TLC and updating and is priced accordingly, making it an appealing option for buyers ready to put in some work and build equity. With nearly 1700 square feet, there&rs

Key facts

• Plenty of parking
• Spacious lot
• Views of ridges

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• VIEWS OF RIDGES
• PLENTY OF PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Cellular phone reception
• Home design: Single-story modular/prefab double-wide; Permanent foundation
• Construction: Modular/Prefab construction; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Shed; Has a view; City street frontage; Gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Partially carpeted; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating; Wood stove; Window/wall cooling units
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/dining combo; Wood burning stove; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $755 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.4% in Mancos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#68 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancos School District Re-6 (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #101 of 176 in CO (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Montezuma County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($200k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $143k; list at $220k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $349,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
658 W Sunset Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,680 (0%)	8mo	$349,000	$208	93

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $12,321
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $72,238
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81328

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,606 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $755

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,650

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $879	-5% $817	+0% $755	+5% $692	+10% $630
Rent	-10% $549	-5% $652	+0% $755	+5% $858	+10% $960
Rate	-1.0pp $865	-0.5pp $811	base $755	+0.5pp $698	+1.0pp $640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $220,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $220,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $220,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $220,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $220,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-04-11
    price $220,000
15. 2026-03-13
    listed $235,000 Active
16. 2011-12-02
    historical
17. 2011-09-19
    listed $126,900
18. 2008-07-24
    soldstatus $143,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 72.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥84°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,501
• − Management: −$2,501
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $5,740
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,378
• After-tax cash flow: $7,678/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mancos School District Re-6
• NCES district ID: 0805460
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $49,636
• Composite: 28.97/100
• National rank: #11935
• State rank: #101 of 176 in CO

Livability — Mancos

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #6355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mancos, CO
• County: Montezuma County · 18,723 people
• City population: 4,487
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 4,487
• Household income: $72,522
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 65.0

Population outlook (Montezuma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,943 people
• By 2030: 27,208 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 27,372 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 27,180 · +0.9%
• By 2075: 26,493 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 23,364 · -13.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montezuma

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.3% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.4pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+22.4 2016: R+30.3 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+19.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.69%
• Current HPI: 277.8609
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+53.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $220,000 cren
• 2026-03-13 Listed $235,000 cren
• 2011-12-02 Listing Removed — cren
• 2011-09-19 Listed $126,900 cren
• 2008-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $143,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +55.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.