609 Chestnut Ave

Trenton, NJ 08611

$100,000B-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 1920 · Townhouse · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,498/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$386
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,063/mo
• Annual: $12,758/yr
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.56%
• DSCR: 3.03
• 1% rule: 2.50%
• Cash to close: $28,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $76k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 6.0% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $2,498/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.