609 Chestnut Ave · Trenton, NJ 08611

$100,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · Townhouse public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1920 2,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * HIGHEST & BEST OFFERS DUE THURS 5/21 BY 2:00PM * * INVESTOR ALERT!!! Huge three-story semi-detached twin in South Trenton with off-street parking & detached garage. Spacious rooms offer tons of potential. Third floor features loft style fourth bedroom. Sprawling basement also provides plenty of additional storage. Strictly as-is sale, buyer is responsible for the CO. Seller obtained property via tax lien foreclosure. Seller prefers to use Brennan Title to complete the transaction. Seller makes no guarantees or warranties as to the condition or accuracy of the information provided. Seller has never seen nor been to property. Schedule a private tour & check out the po

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Semi detached twin
• Sprawling basement

Tags

• THREE STORY
• SEMI DETACHED TWIN
• OFF STREET PARKING
• DETACHED GARAGE
• LOFT STYLE FOURTH BEDROOM
• SPRAWLING BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with two spaces and additional storage area; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Semi-detached brick home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 25.00 x 100.00

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; One bedroom on the second upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Radiator heat powered by natural gas; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 6.3% in Trenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#133 in NJ, #3,533 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Trenton Public School District (urban): math 2% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #471 of 472 in NJ (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 84 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,256 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (1,303 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,498/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 2147% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.7% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $76k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,500 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.56%
• DSCR: 3.03
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,264
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
527 Emory Ave	0.25mi	4/1.0	1,484 (-3%)	1mo	$230,000	$155	80
212 Commonwealth Ave	0.46mi	4/1.5	1,496 (-3%)	0mo	$245,000	$164	74
331 Tyler St	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,520 (-1%)	3mo	$265,000	$174	72
744 Chambers St	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,458 (-5%)	1mo	$269,000	$184	70
27 Tyler St	0.56mi	4/1.0	1,528 (-0%)	3mo	$290,000	$190	68
445 Genesee St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (+7%)	2mo	$230,000	$140	67
202 Commonwealth Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-5%)	1mo	$275,000	$189	67
238 Bayard St	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,364 (-11%)	2mo	$231,000	$169	66
1229 S Broad St	0.56mi	4/1.5	1,410 (-8%)	2mo	$250,000	$177	58
148 Randall Ave	0.66mi	4/1.0	1,358 (-12%)	1mo	$247,500	$182	47
413 Monmouth St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	1mo	$170,000	$121	46
244 Jersey St	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,368 (-11%)	1mo	$200,000	$146	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $56,050
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $155,270
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08611

• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$344 /mo · $4,129/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $1,063

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,152

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,120	-5% $1,091	+0% $1,063	+5% $1,035	+10% $1,007
Rent	-10% $866	-5% $964	+0% $1,063	+5% $1,162	+10% $1,260
Rate	-1.0pp $1,113	-0.5pp $1,089	base $1,063	+0.5pp $1,037	+1.0pp $1,011

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
705 Anderson St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	14d	1	0.29mi
1103 Division St Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1296	$2,000	$1.54	22d	1	0.38mi
635 Chambers St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1312	$2,500	$1.91	14d	1	0.41mi
121 Columbus Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,900	$1.81	22d	1	0.50mi
313 Home Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1112	$2,100	$1.89	14d	1	0.57mi
234 Howell St Trenton, NJ	3.0	3.0	1656	$3,600	$2.17	22d	1	0.61mi
1049 Genesee St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1270	$2,300	$1.81	22d	1	0.69mi
233 Virginia Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1302	$2,500	$1.92	13d	1	0.71mi
244 Jersey St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$2,300	$1.68	14d	1	0.73mi
1132 Genesee St Unit 1132 Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1198	$2,500	$2.09	22d	1	0.74mi
234 Walnut Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	1.0	1480	$2,200	$1.49	22d	1	0.79mi
547 Centre St Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,850	$1.75	22d	1	0.81mi
239 Ardmore Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,750	$1.65	22d	1	0.82mi
5 Rafting Way Trenton, NJ	3.0	2.5	1908	$2,550	$1.34	44d	1	1.02mi
428 Cleveland Ave Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	22d	1	1.08mi
219 Woodlawn Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1456	$2,355	$1.62	14d	1	1.25mi
134 Old Rose St Trenton, NJ	4.0	2.0	1212	$2,300	$1.90	22d	1	1.36mi
340 Connecticut Ave Unit 2 Hamilton Township, NJ	3.0	1.0	1400	$2,850	$2.04	14d	1	1.37mi
117 Park Ave Morrisville, PA	3.0	2.0	1396	$3,200	$2.29	13d	1	1.42mi
700 Schiller Ave Trenton, NJ	3.0	1.0	1558	$2,500	$1.60	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $100,000 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $100,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $100,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $100,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $100,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $100,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $100,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $100,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $100,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $100,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $100,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $100,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $100,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $100,000 Active
16. 1996-05-08
    soldstatus $76,000
17. 1977-12-15
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,129 · $344/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$4,129
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,398
• − Management: −$2,398
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $12,039
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,889
• After-tax cash flow: $9,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trenton Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3416290
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $35,078
• Composite: 7.31/100
• National rank: #9956
• State rank: #471 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Trenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #133
• US rank: #3533

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trenton, NJ
• County: Mercer County · 327,655 people
• City population: 177,819
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 31,995
• Household income: $56,788
• Rent vs Own: 61.0% rent · 39.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2147.0

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,395 people
• By 2030: 384,640 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 391,431 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 397,845 · +4.3%
• By 2075: 417,281 · +9.4%
• By 2100: 420,327 · +10.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% Black 20% Two or more races 18% White 14% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 12% Dominican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swiss 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 37% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.9) · D 65.9% · R 32.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 36.1pp · 2024: 33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.9 2020: D+40.0 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+36.8 2008: D+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -267.62%
• Current HPI: 276.5427
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.71%
• Metro: Trenton-Princeton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $100,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $76,000 Public Records
• 1977-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,129 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.