0 Quail Trl

Rosenberg, TX 77417

$149,000D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Pending · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $13/mo
• Annual: $156/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($156/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.7% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brazos ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brazos Middle (math 62% / reading 47%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 211 students, 57% FRL); Brazos H S (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 287 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.