0 Quail Trl · Rosenberg, TX 77417

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 2010 1.00 ac lot ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy country living on this secluded 1-acre rural property featuring a 1-bedroom, 1-bath home with no HOA and low taxes. The lot is already prepared for a mobile home, with water, plumbing, and electrical connections in place, giving buyers additional options for use or future plans (buyer to verify). Perfect for those seeking flexibility, storage, or workshop space. Home is sold as-is. Call today for more information or to schedule a showing!

Key facts

• Mature greenery
• Low taxes
• Flexible use options

Tags

• SPACIOUS RURAL LOT
• MATURE GREENERY
• NO HOA
• LOW TAXES
• FLEXIBLE USE OPTIONS
• STORAGE OR WORKSHOP SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($156/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Brazos ISD (rural): math 53% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #185 of 826 in TX (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brazos Middle (math 62% / reading 47%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 211 students, 57% FRL); Brazos H S (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #569 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 287 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,109 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $28,036
• Equity at exit: $76,884

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $87,701
• Equity at exit: $126,829

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,204/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,195

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-12-03
   listed $149,000 Active
4. 2023-08-18
   historical
5. 2023-03-29
   status Active
6. 2023-03-28
   status Pending, Continue to Show
7. 2022-08-22
   status Active
8. 2022-08-22
   historical
9. 2022-08-18
   listed $200,000 Active
10. 2012-06-01
    soldstatus
11. 2010-05-07
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,204 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,523/yr (+$127/mo · 126.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,204
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$2,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$581
• After-tax cash flow: $737/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brazos ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844470
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,337
• Composite: 42.75/100
• National rank: #3158
• State rank: #185 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 115,151
• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-03 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-03-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2023-03-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-08-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2022-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-08-18 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,204 · +17.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.