4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
2,703 sqft ·
Built 1994
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,558/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,883
Tax + insurance
−$837
HOA
−$92
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$747
Net cashflow
$-1/mo
Annual
$-11/yr
Cap rate
6.29%
Cash-on-cash
-0.01%
DSCR
1.00
1% rule
0.99%
Cash to close
$100,520
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $359k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-11/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $359k (0.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $356k (0.9% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $348k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#38 in TX, #1,758 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, commute F.
Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Brazos Bend El (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 739 students, 44% FRL); Sartartia Middle (math 69% / reading 71%, grade A, #58 of 1,662 statewide, top 4%, 1,440 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 570 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
13 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.6% in Sugar Land — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-CG4H7X2MX0Q1R9
· Data 11 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29