57 NW Hemlock Dr

Fort Walton Beach, FL 32548

$305,000D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,499 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,240/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax + insurance: −$375
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-205/mo
• Annual: $-2,459/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.88%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $85,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-205 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#111 in FL, #1,628 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 341 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $155k; list at $305k implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 0.9% in Fort Walton Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.