19 Holly Park Ln

Rochester, NH 03867

$159,900F

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,946/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$281
• HOA: −$510
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-92/mo
• Annual: $-1,104/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (10.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $144k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NH, #698 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-.
• Rochester School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in NH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlain Street School (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #227 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 298 students, 45% FRL); Rochester Middle School (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #85 of 96 statewide, top 89%, 847 students, 37% FRL); Spaulding High School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #63 of 90 statewide, top 74%, 1,301 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 951 units permitted in Strafford County in 2024 (551 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Strafford County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $160k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.