19 Holly Park Ln · Rochester, NH 03867

$159,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 2015 Est $119k · 34% over $510/mo HOA · 26% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW 2 BEDROOM MOBILE HOME WITH CATHEDRAL CEILING. MASTER BATH WITH WALK IN SHOWER. NEW APPLIANCES. CEILING FANS. SEPARATE WASH ROOM ENTRY. CORNER LOT. PARK NEAR SCHOOLS, MALL AND DOWNTOWN.

Key facts

• Double-wide home
• Ample cabinetry
• Double closets

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• ONE-LEVEL LIVING
• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• WALK-IN SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a mobile home park (Homette Cottage Park); Mobile serial number CG11-0579-EBA; Road frontage via association
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $510; Mobile home park approved (Chestnut Hill MHP)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; 100 Amp electrical service with circuit breakers; High-speed internet available; Cable available
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; Ranch style; Single-story; Built in 2015; Home faces unavailable
• Construction: Metal construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Existing property
• Exterior features: Level lot; Paved driveway; Common land (39 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (10.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (10.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#8 in NH, #698 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-.
• Rochester School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #83 of 98 in NH (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chamberlain Street School (math 24% / reading 27%, grade F, #227 of 263 statewide, top 86%, 298 students, 45% FRL); Rochester Middle School (math 18% / reading 27%, grade F, #85 of 96 statewide, top 89%, 847 students, 37% FRL); Spaulding High School (math 30% / reading 49%, grade F, #63 of 90 statewide, top 74%, 1,301 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 109 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 951 units permitted in Strafford County in 2024 (551 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Strafford County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $160k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $143,647 (10.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,040
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 WEST Ln	0.07mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	8mo	$153,000	$166	82
9 West Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	924 (-4%)	14mo	$115,000	$124	77
6 RIVERVIEW Dr	0.11mi	2/1.0	840 (-12%)	12mo	$87,000	$104	62
44 HOLLY PARK Ln	0.11mi	2/1.0	852 (-11%)	15mo	$102,500	$120	62
8 Perimeter Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,104 (+15%)	5mo	$110,000	$100	56
12 Skyline Dr	0.11mi	2/1.5	1,098 (+14%)	23mo	$160,500	$146	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,002
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-21,203
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Hampshire: 56 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+1
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Has just-cause statute; 30-day notice; landlord-leaning vs. neighbors.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 03867

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$214 /mo · $2,567/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$510
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $143,647

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-47	+0% $-92	+5% $-137	+10% $-183
Rent	-10% $-246	-5% $-169	+0% $-92	+5% $-15	+10% $62
Rate	-1.0pp $-11	-0.5pp $-51	base $-92	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 Elm Ct Rochester, NH	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	0d	1	0.62mi
257 N Main St Unit C Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	600	$1,300	$2.17	6d	1	0.69mi
9 Madison Ave Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	600	$1,750	$2.92	45d	1	0.99mi
36 Farmington Rd Rochester, NH	1.0–2.0	1.0	875	$2,300	$2.63	0d	1	1.00mi
73 N Main St Unit 302 Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	19d	1	1.08mi
73 N Main St Unit 202 Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	950	$1,800	$1.89	6d	1	1.08mi
55 N Main St Unit 301 Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	690	$1,925	$2.79	16d	1	1.10mi
28 Chestnut St Unit Upstairs Rochester, NH	2.0	1.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	16d	1	1.13mi
10 N Main St Rochester, NH	2.0	1.0	785	$2,150	$2.74	0d	1	1.18mi
58 Washington St Rochester, NH	3.0	1.0	1120	$2,300	$2.05	6d	1	1.18mi
22 S Main St Unit 205 Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	700	$1,895	$2.71	18d	1	1.20mi
22 S Main St Unit 202 Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	931	$2,295	$2.47	12d	1	1.20mi
73 Maple St Rochester, NH	2.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	4d	1	1.20mi
18 Winter St Unit A Rochester, NH	1.0	1.0	800	$1,500	$1.88	1d	1	1.37mi
52 Woodland Grn Rochester, NH	2.0	1.5	1048	$2,350	$2.24	6d	1	1.42mi
21 Knight St Unit 1 Rochester, NH	3.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	6d	1	1.50mi
21 Knight St Unit 1 Rochester, NH	3.0	1.0	900	$2,300	$2.56	1d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $510 · $6,120/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 654-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $159,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,567 · $214/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,026 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 17.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,348
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,567
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$6,120
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$3,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$836
• After-tax cash flow: $-268/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester School District
• NCES district ID: 3305940
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,080
• Composite: 27.11/100
• National rank: #7039
• State rank: #83 of 98 in NH

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #698

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NH
• County: Strafford County · 75,181 people
• City population: 22,732
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• Population (ZIP): 22,732
• Household income: $78,674
• Rent vs Own: 37.4% rent · 62.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 663.0

Population outlook (Strafford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 132,503 people
• By 2030: 135,377 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 139,609 · +5.4%
• By 2050: 141,803 · +7.0%
• By 2075: 149,280 · +12.7%
• By 2100: 148,667 · +12.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 12% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Strafford

• 2024 margin: D (+12.1) · D 55.5% · R 43.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: 20.4pp · 2024: 12.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.1 2020: D+15.2 2016: D+8.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+20.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 379.5755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.22%
• Metro: Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+204.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $159,900 PrimeMLS
• 2015-06-24 Sold (MLS) $52,500 PrimeMLS
• 2015-05-14 Delisted — PrimeMLS
• 2015-02-03 Listed $52,500 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,567 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.