120 Swan St

Lambertville, NJ 08530-1053

$769,000B+

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,928 sqft · Built 1991 · SingleFamily · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,019/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,033
• Tax + insurance: −$1,107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,734
• Net cashflow: $5,145/mo
• Annual: $61,745/yr
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.05%
• DSCR: 2.29
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $215,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $769k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $769k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $769k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $215k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.7% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.