120 Swan St · Lambertville, NJ 08530-1053

$769,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 0.42 ac lot $263/sqft · 10% below area Est $818k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

High above Swan Creek (No Flood Insurance Req'd for the house) and set on a rare .43-acre private lot (with on-site parking for 2 vehicles!) and just a short walk from downtown Lambertville, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath contemporary offers approximately 2,800 sq ft of light-filled living space. With eight decks and balconies, the home provides exceptional indoor-outdoor flow and peaceful, treehouse-like views. Walls of glass and multiple gathering spaces create an open, airy feel ideal for entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, flexible floor plan options and vaulted ceilings add comfort and functionality. Enjoy privacy and nature while being just a short walk to Lambertville's shops, restaurants, galleries, and river path. A unique property combining architectural interest, generous outdoor space, and an unbeatable location. More photos to follow soon...

Key facts

• Private decks
• Private wooded oasis
• Tree-top views

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED OASIS
• TREE-TOP VIEWS
• SPACIOUS FR
• PRIVATE DECKS
• GENEROUS BUILT-IN BOOKCASES
• OPEN SHELVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $769k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($13k rent vs $769k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 4.7% in Lambertville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#168 in NJ, #4,460 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• South Hunterdon Regional School District (rural): math 13% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #335 of 472 in NJ (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 389 units permitted in Hunterdon County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $23k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunterdon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $215k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; list at $769k implies a 289% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $769,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.05%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $817,924
• List price: $769,000
• Delta: -2.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2 Allen St	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,756 (-6%)	6mo	$664,500	$241	61
7 Chimney Hill Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,674 (-9%)	11mo	$845,000	$316	50
130 N Main St Unit B	0.74mi	4/3.5	3,111 (+6%)	8mo	$4,000,000	$1,286	46
64 N Main St	0.66mi	4/4.0	3,336 (+14%)	0mo	$4,900,000	$1,469	42
194 N Union St	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,715 (-7%)	18mo	$1,050,000	$387	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $420,440
• Equity at exit: $345,776

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.82×
• Total profit: $1,037,691
• Equity at exit: $532,882

Cash invested: $215,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08530-1053

• Active inventory: 1
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,019 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,033
• Tax from tax record: −$720 /mo · $8,642/yr
• Insurance: −$320
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,734
• Net cashflow: $5,145

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,506

Max offer price $769,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $192,250
• Closing costs: $23,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 W Bridge St New Hope, PA	3.0	2.5	2718	$6,800	$2.50	10d	1	0.77mi
9 Arnett Ave Unit 1380124P Lambertville, NJ	4.0	2.0	2497	$25,101	$10.05	43d	1	0.79mi
242 S Sugan Rd New Hope, PA	5.0	2.0	2744	$4,500	$1.64	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $769,000 Active 1 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   days on marketlisting id $799,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $799,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $799,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $799,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $799,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $799,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $799,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $799,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $799,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $799,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $799,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $799,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-04-17
    listed $799,000 Active 857-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    High above Swan Creek (No Flood Insurance Req'd for the house) and set on a rare . 43-acre private lot (with on-site parking for 2 vehicles!) and just a short walk from downtown Lambertville, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath contemporary offers approximately 2,800 sq ft of light-filled living space. With eight decks and balconies, the home provides exceptional indoor-outdoor flow and peaceful, treehouse-like views. Walls of glass and multiple gathering spaces create an open, airy feel ideal for entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, flexible floor plan options and vaulted ceilings add comfort and functionality. Enjoy privacy and nature while being just a short walk to Lambertville’s shops, restaurants, galleries, and river path. A unique property combining architectural interest, generous outdoor space, and an unbeatable location. .. .More photos to come soon

16. 2026-04-17
    listed $799,000 Active 861-char remark

    Show marketing remark (861 chars)

    High above Swan Creek (No Flood Insurance Req'd for the house) and set on a rare . 43-acre private lot (with on-site parking for 2 vehicles!) and just a short walk from downtown Lambertville, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath contemporary offers approximately 2,800 sq ft of light-filled living space. With eight decks and balconies, the home provides exceptional indoor-outdoor flow and peaceful, treehouse-like views. Walls of glass and multiple gathering spaces create an open, airy feel ideal for entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, flexible floor plan options and vaulted ceilings add comfort and functionality. Enjoy privacy and nature while being just a short walk to Lambertville’s shops, restaurants, galleries, and river path. A unique property combining architectural interest, generous outdoor space, and an unbeatable location. .. .More photos to come soon

17. 2001-11-10
    historical
18. 2001-08-27
    listed $369,900
19. 1992-02-06
    soldstatus $197,500
20. 1991-11-15
    soldstatus $197,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,642 · $720/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $13,895 · $1,158/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,253/yr (+$438/mo · 60.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $156,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,076
• − Property taxes: −$8,642
• − Insurance: −$4,642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,498
• − Management: −$12,498
• − Depreciation: −$22,371
• Taxable income: $52,502
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12,601
• After-tax cash flow: $49,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Hunterdon Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3400769
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $82,621
• Composite: 27.54/100
• National rank: #6948
• State rank: #335 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Lambertville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #4460

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lambertville, NJ

Population outlook (Hunterdon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,644 people
• By 2030: 121,131 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 117,753 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 112,601 · -8.2%
• By 2075: 104,371 · -14.9%
• By 2100: 93,364 · -23.9%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+304.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $799,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $799,000 GSMLS
• 2001-11-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-08-27 Listed $369,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1992-02-06 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records
• 1991-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $197,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,642 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.