74 Blacks Mill Trce E

Dawsonville, GA 30534

$329,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax + insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-270/mo
• Annual: $-3,238/yr
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.51%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $92,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($325k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#155 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Dawson County (rural): math 40% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #30 of 174 in GA (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Black'S Mill Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #336 of 1,228 statewide, top 29%, 433 students, 40% FRL); Dawson County Middle School (math 47% / reading 48%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 555 students, 46% FRL); Dawson County High School (math 5% / reading 33%, grade F, #250 of 424 statewide, top 60%, 773 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 573 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 887 units permitted in Dawson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dawson County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.0% in Dawsonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.