9969 Robins Nest Rd

Boca Raton, FL 33496

$528,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,769
• Tax + insurance: −$793
• HOA: −$200
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-720/mo
• Annual: $-8,641/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $147,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $528k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-720 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (27.1% below list).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $385k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines Elementary School (math 62% / reading 69%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 1,015 students, 25% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $528k implies a 552% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.