9969 Robins Nest Rd · Boca Raton, FL 33496

$528,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1987 8,997 sqft lot $200/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful, unfurnished, move-in ready 3/2 home (1,364 sf) now available for sale at Boca Landings, off of 441 and Yamato Rd! Front entrance boasts a small enclosed patio. Unit boasts a large, open living room with vaulted ceilings, designated dining area and adjacent kitchen. New vinyl floors & ceiling fans throughout. Washer & dryer in attached garage. All bedrooms are freshly painted, with plenty of closet space. Living room leads to a big screened patio and private backyard, perfect for entertaining! Low HOA fee which includes cable/internet, trash removal & lots of amenities such as: a clubhouse, pool, tennis courts, playground, & basketball courts. Conveniently l

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Gated community
• Open living room

Tags

• ENCLOSED PATIO
• OPEN LIVING ROOM
• SCREENED PATIO
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• GATED COMMUNITY
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with no restrictions
• HOA & community: Community amenities include clubhouse, community room, playground, basketball court, tennis courts, sidewalks, street lights, and internet included; HOA fee approximately $200 monthly; fee covers cable TV, insurance, security, trash, common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; One garage space; Attached carport with two carport spaces; Three covered parking spaces
• Security: Closed-circuit camera system; Security patrol
• Utilities: Three-phase electric; Public sewer; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Resale property; Faces east
• Construction: CBS construction; Composition/shingle roof; Built area noted in public records
• Exterior features: Covered patio, screened patio; Patio; Sidewalks; Paved road frontage west of US-1; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings and vaulted/high ceilings; Blinds on windows; Accessible entrance
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area inside and in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $528k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-720 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (24.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $385k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.7% in Boca Raton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#192 in FL, #3,070 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whispering Pines Elementary School (math 62% / reading 69%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 1,015 students, 25% FRL); Omni Middle School (math 66% / reading 66%, grade A-, #93 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,128 students, 29% FRL); Olympic Heights Community High (math 52% / reading 64%, grade C, #120 of 667 statewide, top 18%, 2,602 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools average 28% FRL vs 52% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 63% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 332 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $56k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $53k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$91k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $81k; list at $528k implies a 552% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,083 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.84%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $239,173
• Equity at exit: $475,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $735,408
• Equity at exit: $1,025,788

Cash invested: $147,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33496

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 332
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,769
• Tax from tax record: −$573 /mo · $6,880/yr
• Insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$200
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-720

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,762

Max offer price $400,796

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-421	-5% $-571	+0% $-720	+5% $-870	+10% $-1,019
Rent	-10% $-1,024	-5% $-872	+0% $-720	+5% $-568	+10% $-416
Rate	-1.0pp $-454	-0.5pp $-586	base $-720	+0.5pp $-857	+1.0pp $-996

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,000
• Closing costs: $15,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	14d	1	0.07mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	27d	1	0.07mi
9928 Moss Pond Dr Unit 9928 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1843	$4,500	$2.44	17d	1	0.07mi
9850 Ridgecreek Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1364	$3,600	$2.64	27d	1	0.13mi
9841 Ridgecreek Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$4,500	$3.14	27d	1	0.15mi
18813 Cloud Lake Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,400	$3.00	6d	1	0.16mi
18813 Cloud Lake Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,500	$3.09	7d	1	0.16mi
9785 Ridgecreek Rd Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1172	$3,450	$2.94	7d	1	0.16mi
9785 Ridgecreek Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1172	$3,600	$3.07	21d	1	0.16mi
18917 Cloud Lake Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1132	$3,350	$2.96	27d	1	0.32mi
9732 Saddlebrook Dr Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1388	$3,235	$2.33	13d	1	0.33mi
9975 Boca Gardens Trl Unit A Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1276	$3,300	$2.59	10d	1	0.34mi
9636 Tavernier Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1820	$4,200	$2.31	27d	1	0.43mi
9585 Affirmed Ln Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1756	$3,950	$2.25	8d	1	0.44mi
9713 Boca Gardens Pkwy Unit D Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.5	1325	$3,995	$3.02	17d	1	0.46mi
18298 102nd Way S Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$6,500	$3.51	27d	1	0.48mi
9448 Saddlebrook Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$3,500	$2.82	23d	1	0.54mi
9448 Saddlebrook Dr Unit 9448 Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$3,500	$2.82	27d	1	0.54mi
9392 Affirmed Ln Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1635	$3,200	$1.96	17d	1	0.60mi
9940 Liberty Rd Boca Raton, FL	4.0	2.0	1674	$5,500	$3.29	27d	1	0.67mi
19287 Liberty Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	1327	$3,450	$2.60	8d	1	0.74mi
19287 Liberty Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1327	$3,450	$2.60	27d	1	0.74mi
19287 Liberty Rd Boca Raton, FL	3.0	3.0	1327	$3,450	$2.60	13d	1	0.74mi
18730 Stewart Cir #5 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1227	$2,500	$2.04	27d	1	0.76mi
9718 Lancaster Pl Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$4,400	$2.48	27d	1	0.79mi
9680 Lancaster Pl Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$4,850	$3.22	27d	1	0.81mi
9387 Richmond Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1849	$4,100	$2.22	13d	1	0.84mi
9387 Richmond Cir Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1849	$4,100	$2.22	2d	1	0.84mi
10780 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,500	$2.41	10d	1	0.86mi
9104 Affirmed Ln Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$3,215	$2.54	2d	1	0.87mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,800	$2.62	21d	1	0.87mi
10781 Cypress Lake Ter Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$3,600	$2.48	20d	1	0.87mi
9190 Boca Gardens Pkwy Unit B Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.5	1845	$3,500	$1.90	27d	1	0.88mi
9238 Vineland Ct Unit G Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1318	$3,100	$2.35	1d	1	0.91mi
9110 Fairbanks Ln #4 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1227	$2,400	$1.96	27d	1	0.96mi
18595 Egret Way #18595 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,200	$2.20	27d	1	1.05mi
18855 Candlewick Dr Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1022	$2,600	$2.54	27d	1	1.07mi
18890 Candlewick Dr Unit B Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1044	$2,600	$2.49	27d	1	1.07mi
18965 Adagio Dr Boca Raton, FL	3.0	2.0	1795	$5,250	$2.92	27d	1	1.07mi
10875 Lake Front Pl Unit 10875 Boca Raton, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,300	$1.91	27d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $200 · $2,400/yr
• Likely covers: trashinternetcablepool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $528,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $528,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $528,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $528,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $528,000 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $528,000 Active 139 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $528,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $528,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $528,000 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $528,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $528,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $528,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $528,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-02-25
    price $528,000
15. 2026-02-25
    price $530,000
16. 2026-01-27
    listed $575,000 Active
17. 2013-09-21
    historical
18. 2007-02-01
    listed $328,800
19. 1986-12-01
    soldstatus $81,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,880 · $573/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,576
• − Property taxes: −$6,880
• − Insurance: −$2,640
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,697
• − Management: −$3,697
• − HOA: −$2,400
• − Depreciation: −$15,360
• Taxable loss: −$18,040
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Boca Raton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #3070

Category grades

Amenities D Commute B Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Palm Beach County · 1,438,312 people
• City population: 250,102
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,579
• Household income: $114,885
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 13% Romanian 9% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.48%
• Current HPI: 313.9058
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.31%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+551.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $528,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $530,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $575,000 Beaches MLS
• 2013-09-21 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2007-02-01 Listed $328,800 Beaches MLS
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $81,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,880 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.