Concept 2406 Plan

Gunter, TX 75058

$619,990D+

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,406 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 914 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,794
• Tax + insurance: −$1,206
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-654/mo
• Annual: $-7,853/yr
• Cap rate: 5.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.88%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $202,560

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $620k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-654 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (11.3% below list).
• It's been on market 914 days — a 12% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $546k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $77k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $72k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gunter El (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #621 of 4,322 statewide, top 15%, 414 students, 23% FRL); Gunter Middle (math 46% / reading 56%, grade C, #326 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 373 students, 19% FRL); Gunter H S (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 371 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$124k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Gunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,500/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($118k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 914 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.