Concept 2406 Plan · Gunter, TX 75058

$619,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,406 sqft · SingleFamily · 866 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your dream lifestyle awaits in this spectacular and luxurious residence expertly crafted to offer the very best in contemporary comfort. Even before stepping inside, there are a host of personal touches to choose from with six stunning elevation options including three with intricate stone feature accents. A grand entry welcomes you inside and draws you into the layout, beckoning you to explore further. To your left is an elegant formal dining room that could be transformed into a study, making the perfect retreat for those who work from home. The heart of the floorplan is the open-concept kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room with walls of glass framing tranquil views over the backyard. A corner fireplace will act as the centerpiece for the family room while the open design is ideal for the avid entertainer. Ready and waiting for the gourmet chef is the well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry, a center island, and a suite of quality appliances including a dishwasher and cooktop. There's gorgeous cabinetry with plenty of storage and an optional microwave and oven. Two covered patio options ensure you can create the outdoor entertaining oasis you have always wanted. You can extend the patio out further into the backyard and expand the living space or even add an outdoor fireplace, the choice is all yours. This layout offers four good-size bedrooms all with walk-in closets, however, bedroom four has the option of being transformed into either a study or dining room. Your mas

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 865 days

🏗️ New construction. The $619,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $733,747.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $620k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-726 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $550k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $546k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 1.8% in Gunter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#236 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Gunter ISD (rural): math 47% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #103 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 202 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,272 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (750 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $78k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$126k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 866 days — a 12% lower offer ($546k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $545,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 866 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.24%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $733,747
• List price: $619,990
• Delta: -15.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
154 Whispering Winds Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,559 (+6%)	0mo	$395,000	$154	74
115 Beavers Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,420 (+1%)	18mo	$535,000	$221	71
145 Knoll Trl	0.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,623 (+9%)	3mo	$674,999	$257	65
330 Waterview Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,406 (0%)	23mo	$699,999	$291	62
1389 Mcconnell Rd	0.42mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,243 (-7%)	16mo	$1,150,000	$513	47
150 Whispering Winds Dr	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,635 (+10%)	21mo	$602,500	$229	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $353,477
• Equity at exit: $661,017

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $1,077,447
• Equity at exit: $1,425,509

Cash invested: $205,449 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75058

• Home prices YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,848
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$917 /mo · $11,006/yr
• Insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,155
• Net cashflow: $-726

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,419

Max offer price $628,728

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-219	-5% $-472	+0% $-726	+5% $-979	+10% $-1,233
Rent	-10% $-1,160	-5% $-943	+0% $-726	+5% $-509	+10% $-291
Rate	-1.0pp $-356	-0.5pp $-539	base $-726	+0.5pp $-916	+1.0pp $-1,109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $183,437
• Closing costs: $22,012
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 Waterview Dr Gunter, TX	4.0	3.0	2784	$5,500	$1.98	0d	1	0.19mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $619,990 Active 866 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $619,990 Active 863 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $619,990 Active 862 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $619,990 Active 861 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $619,990 Active 860 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $619,990 Active 858 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $619,990 Active 854 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $619,990 Active 853 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $619,990 Active 852 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $619,990 Active 849 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $619,990 Active 848 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $619,990 Active 847 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $619,990 Active 846 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $619,990 Active 845 DOM
15. 2024-02-06
    listed $619,990 Active 1505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1505 chars)

    Your dream lifestyle awaits in this spectacular and luxurious residence expertly crafted to offer the very best in contemporary comfort. Even before stepping inside, there are a host of personal touches to choose from with six stunning elevation options including three with intricate stone feature accents. A grand entry welcomes you inside and draws you into the layout, beckoning you to explore further. To your left is an elegant formal dining room that could be transformed into a study, making the perfect retreat for those who work from home. The heart of the floorplan is the open-concept kitchen, breakfast nook, and family room with walls of glass framing tranquil views over the backyard. A corner fireplace will act as the centerpiece for the family room while the open design is ideal for the avid entertainer. Ready and waiting for the gourmet chef is the well-appointed kitchen with a walk-in pantry, a center island, and a suite of quality appliances including a dishwasher and cooktop. There's gorgeous cabinetry with plenty of storage and an optional microwave and oven. Two covered patio options ensure you can create the outdoor entertaining oasis you have always wanted. You can extend the patio out further into the backyard and expand the living space or even add an outdoor fireplace, the choice is all yours. This layout offers four good-size bedrooms all with walk-in closets, however, bedroom four has the option of being transformed into either a study or dining room. Your mas

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$41,101
• − Property taxes: −$11,006
• − Insurance: −$3,669
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,280
• − Management: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$21,345
• Taxable loss: −$21,682
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,204
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and landscaping would further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gunter ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821960
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $79,375
• Composite: 47.63/100
• National rank: #2254
• State rank: #103 of 826 in TX

Livability — Gunter

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #5729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gunter, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,614

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 134,540 people
• By 2030: 138,653 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 145,958 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 151,218 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 161,802 · +20.3%
• By 2100: 159,036 · +18.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 18% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 18%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.5% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+49.9 2016: R+53.1 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.56%
• Current HPI: 309.3751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-02-06 Listed $619,990 Zillow