34471 Ciruela Ave

French Valley, CA 92596

$458,888D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,618/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,406
• Tax + insurance: −$765
• HOA: −$461
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $-774/mo
• Annual: $-9,289/yr
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $128,489

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (21.2% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $347k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.