34471 Ciruela Ave · French Valley, CA 92596

$458,888

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,497 sqft · Townhouse · 49 Days on market

Built 2025 1,000 sqft lot $307/sqft · 6% above area Est $434k · 6% over $461/mo HOA · 13% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS#IG25044372 VIRTUALLY STAGED PHOTOS. New Contruction - June Completion! Welcome to the Oliva Plan 1 new build at Oliva at Siena! Step inside and feel right at home with an inviting open-concept design that flows beautifully from the entry to the heart of the home. The well-equipped gourmet kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating a perfect space for gathering. A convenient half bath on the main floor is great for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom. A thoughtfully placed tech space and an easily accessible laundry room add extra convenience to your daily routine.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Spa-like bathroom
• Lg appliances

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• UPGRADED BACKSPLASH
• LG APPLIANCES
• OVERSIZED WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPA-LIKE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include curbs, dog park, street lighting, storm drains, sidewalks, suburban setting, and nearby park; 529 units in the community; Builder: Taylor Morrison (Olive Plan 1)
• Financial info: Mello-Roos assessments
• HOA & community: Part of Siena Master Association; Monthly association fee; Association amenities include pool, spa, pet rules (pets permitted; call for rules)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached rear-entry garage; Two garage spaces; Two total parking spaces
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: 220V in garage; Natural gas connected; Public/district water; Public sewer; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Telephone on property; Water connected
• Home design: Attached house; Two stories; Entry on first floor; Turnkey, updated/remodeled condition; No ADU
• Construction: Builder-provided year built source; Structure: House
• Exterior features: Concrete patio; Community pool; Has patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range and electric oven; Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Ice maker; High-efficiency water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; All bedrooms located on upper level; Walk-in closet
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double sinks in primary bath; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating with furnace; Central electric cooling (Energy Star, high efficiency)
• Interior features: Wet bar; Pantry; Quartz counters; Self-closing drawers; Insulated doors; Security system; Double pane Energy Star windows; Community spa
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup and gas & electric dryer hookup; Laundry room on upper level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-774 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (24.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $362k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $347k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in French Valley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#655 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Temecula Valley Unified (urban): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #173 of 1,400 in CA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Susan La Vorgna Elementary (810 students, 27% FRL); Bella Vista Middle (1,396 students, 26% FRL); Chaparral High (3,030 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 352 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$79k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($445k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $346,883 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.23%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,990
• List price: $458,888
• Delta: 5.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34483 Ciruela Ave	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	13mo	$404,990	$271	88
34543 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	4mo	$399,990	$267	82
34581 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	4mo	$461,385	$308	82
34447 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	11mo	$419,990	$281	77
34611 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	3mo	$429,990	$276	77
34623 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	4mo	$433,990	$278	76
34435 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,497 (0%)	13mo	$422,885	$282	75
34513 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+4%)	11mo	$429,990	$276	70
34549 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	9mo	$425,370	$266	67
34477 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	10mo	$434,990	$272	66
34429 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	10mo	$479,090	$299	66
34465 Ciruela Ave	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,601 (+7%)	12mo	$429,990	$269	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $190,358
• Equity at exit: $413,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $581,029
• Equity at exit: $891,518

Cash invested: $128,489 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 352
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,406
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$574 /mo · $6,883/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$461
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$760
• Net cashflow: $-774

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,598

Max offer price $346,883

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-457	-5% $-615	+0% $-774	+5% $-933	+10% $-1,091
Rent	-10% $-1,060	-5% $-917	+0% $-774	+5% $-631	+10% $-488
Rate	-1.0pp $-543	-0.5pp $-657	base $-774	+0.5pp $-893	+1.0pp $-1,014

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,722
• Closing costs: $13,767
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
34543 Ciruela AVE French Valley, CA	3.0	2.5	1497	$3,400	$2.27	0d	1	0.29mi
33014 Marin Fields Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1779	$3,795	$2.13	44d	1	0.38mi
34495 Agave Dr #1105 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1399	$3,250	$2.32	11d	1	1.01mi
34495 Agave Dr #20106 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,050	$2.18	19d	1	1.01mi
34495 Agave Dr Bldg 24 Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,645	$1.89	25d	1	1.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $461 · $5,532/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $458,888 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $458,888 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $458,888 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $458,888 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $458,888 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $458,888 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $458,888 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $458,888 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $458,888 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $458,888 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $458,888 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $458,888 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $458,888 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $458,888 Active 28 DOM
15. 2026-05-03
    listed $458,888 Active 2283-char remark
16. 2025-05-30
    soldstatus $429,990 Closed Sale 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    MLS#IG25044372 VIRTUALLY STAGED PHOTOS. New Contruction - June Completion! Welcome to the Oliva Plan 1 new build at Oliva at Siena! Step inside and feel right at home with an inviting open-concept design that flows beautifully from the entry to the heart of the home. The well-equipped gourmet kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating a perfect space for gathering. A convenient half bath on the main floor is great for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom. A thoughtfully placed tech space and an easily accessible laundry room add extra convenience to your daily routine.

17. 2025-03-12
    historical
18. 2025-03-07
    listed $434,990 Active
19. 2025-03-04
    status Pending Sale 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    MLS#IG25044372 VIRTUALLY STAGED PHOTOS. New Contruction - June Completion! Welcome to the Oliva Plan 1 new build at Oliva at Siena! Step inside and feel right at home with an inviting open-concept design that flows beautifully from the entry to the heart of the home. The well-equipped gourmet kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating a perfect space for gathering. A convenient half bath on the main floor is great for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom. A thoughtfully placed tech space and an easily accessible laundry room add extra convenience to your daily routine.

20. 2025-02-28
    listed $429,990 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    MLS#IG25044372 VIRTUALLY STAGED PHOTOS. New Contruction - June Completion! Welcome to the Oliva Plan 1 new build at Oliva at Siena! Step inside and feel right at home with an inviting open-concept design that flows beautifully from the entry to the heart of the home. The well-equipped gourmet kitchen overlooks the dining area and great room, creating a perfect space for gathering. A convenient half bath on the main floor is great for guests. Upstairs, you’ll find three bedrooms, including a spacious primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet and a spa-like bathroom. A thoughtfully placed tech space and an easily accessible laundry room add extra convenience to your daily routine.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,705
• − Property taxes: −$6,883
• − Insurance: −$2,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,473
• − Management: −$3,473
• − HOA: −$5,532
• − Depreciation: −$13,349
• Taxable loss: −$17,295
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,151
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,138/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Temecula Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600028
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $84,032
• Composite: 57.48/100
• National rank: #2264
• State rank: #173 of 1400 in CA

Livability — French Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #20351

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: French Valley, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $458,888 CRMLS
• 2025-05-30 Sold (MLS) $429,990 CRMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-03-07 Listed $434,990 CRMLS
• 2025-03-04 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $429,990 CRMLS