1709 Valley Forge Way

Louisville, KY 40215

$300,000D+

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,430 sqft · Built 1966 · MultiFamily · Active · 111 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,296/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$445
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$692
• Net cashflow: $585/mo
• Annual: $7,024/yr
• Cap rate: 8.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.36%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.10%
• Cash to close: $84,000

Investor read

• This is a 1×2.0bd/1.0ba + 1×3.0bd/2.0ba units multifamily listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive. Per door: $293/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,296/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($44k/yr) (locally 997% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?