6450 N Winton Way #27

Winton, CA 95388

$149,950D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,351/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $187/mo
• Annual: $2,243/yr
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $41,986

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.9% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#545 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living C-, schools F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.