6450 N Winton Way #27 · Winton, CA 95388

$149,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured · 11 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $144k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 6450 N. Winton Way #27 in Winton Mobile Home Village! This well-maintained home offers comfortable living with a functional floor plan, spacious living areas, and plenty of natural light throughout. The kitchen provides ample cabinetry and workspace, opening to the dining area for easy everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite features a private bath, while additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Enjoy covered parking, outdoor space for relaxation, and access to community amenities including a clubhouse and swimming pool. Conveniently located near schools, shopping, dining, and commuter routes, this affordable home is a fantastic oppo

Key facts

• Covered parking
• Clubhouse
• Community amenities

Tags

• COVERED PARKING
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• CLUBHOUSE
• SWIMMING POOL
• PRIVATE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mobile home park with rented space; Community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric service on; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured home; Mobile home on rented park space; Make/Model: 4563B
• Construction: Built with stucco and wood siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: One level; Composition roof; Stucco and wood siding exterior; Wood subfloor foundation; Located in an urban setting; Private community in-ground pool

Interior

• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating and air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas appliances; Vinyl flooring; Free-standing fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $187 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#545 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living C-, schools F.
• Merced Union High (urban): math 20% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #301 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,060 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.34%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,000
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6450 N Winton #93	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-3%)	1mo	$110,000	$76	94
6450 N Winton Way #9	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	9mo	$137,000	$88	86
6450 N Winton Way #91	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,500 (0%)	18mo	$140,000	$93	85
6450 N Winton Way #22	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	12mo	$137,500	$88	83
6450 N Winton Way #98	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+8%)	9mo	$160,000	$99	79
7189 Manor Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+6%)	8mo	$175,000	$110	68
6450 N Winton Way #88	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-10%)	20mo	$130,000	$96	67
6322 Monica Way	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	10mo	$190,000	$141	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,471
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $4,160
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95388

• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,351 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $272	-5% $229	+0% $187	+5% $144	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $80	-5% $134	+0% $187	+5% $240	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $225	base $187	+0.5pp $148	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $149,950 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,950 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,950 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,950 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,950 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,950 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,950 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $149,950 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,950 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,950 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $149,950 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $375 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$765/yr (+$64/mo · 203.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,297
• − Management: −$1,297
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable loss: −$272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$65
• After-tax cash flow: $2,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Merced Union High
• NCES district ID: 0624660
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,977
• Composite: 28.11/100
• National rank: #6823
• State rank: #301 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #545
• US rank: #18141

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 13,005

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 80% White 16% Two or more races 10% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 79%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 27% English-only · Spanish 70% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.66%
• Current HPI: 315.8987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $149,950 FRESNOMLS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2020): $375 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.