410 Pecan Dr

Clinton, KY 42021

$169,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,705 sqft · Built 1971 · SingleFamily · Active · 224 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,214/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-701/yr
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-701/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#369 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #24 of 165 in KY (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickman County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 421 students, 58% FRL); Hickman County High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 302 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hickman County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $170k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.