410 Pecan Dr · Clinton, KY 42021

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,705 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1971 10,019 sqft lot Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Conveniently located in the heart of Clinton, 410 Pecan Drive offers a practical layout, manageable outdoor space, and easy access to everyday essentials. This home is well suited for buyers looking for a straightforward property without unnecessary upkeep. The interior provides comfortable living space with a functional floor plan designed for daily life. Outside, the yard offers room to enjoy the outdoors, garden, or personalize over time. Location is a key advantage. The home is just minutes from local schools, grocery stores, dining, and community services. Golf enthusiasts will also appreciate being approximately one mile from Oak Hill Golf Course, making it easy to enjoy a quick round

Key facts

• Enclosed sunroom
• Fenced backyard
• Interior bonus room

Tags

• ENCLOSED SUNROOM
• INTERIOR BONUS ROOM
• DETACHED GARAGE
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single family residence; Single-story
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-701/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (6.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#369 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hickman County (rural): math 41% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #24 of 165 in KY (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickman County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #148 of 676 statewide, top 24%, 421 students, 58% FRL); Hickman County High School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #32 of 254 statewide, top 13%, 302 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Hickman County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $170k implies a 309% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,393 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.47%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,500
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 E Jackson St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,490 (-13%)	5mo	$65,000	$44	50
316 S Washington St	0.42mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,651 (-3%)	18mo	$165,000	$100	49
407 N Washington St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,518 (-11%)	12mo	$72,000	$47	46
306 Samuels St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-11%)	15mo	$158,500	$105	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $33,916
• Equity at exit: $94,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $106,323
• Equity at exit: $162,259

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,288

Max offer price $159,577

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-10	+0% $-58	+5% $-107	+10% $-155
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-106	+0% $-58	+5% $-10	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $27	-0.5pp $-15	base $-58	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 217 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 216 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-04-03
   price $169,900
10. 2026-01-07
    price $174,900
11. 2025-10-28
    listed $179,900 Active
12. 2025-05-08
    price $179,900
13. 2025-04-16
    listed $188,000 Active
14. 1996-10-01
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$793/yr (+$66/mo · 118.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,567
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,165
• − Management: −$1,165
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,741
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$898
• After-tax cash flow: $197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hickman County
• NCES district ID: 2102790
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $37,542
• Composite: 37.42/100
• National rank: #4421
• State rank: #24 of 165 in KY

Livability — Clinton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #369
• US rank: #17542

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clinton, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Hickman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,255 people
• By 2030: 4,018 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 3,511 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 3,026 · -28.9%
• By 2075: 2,090 · -50.9%
• By 2100: 1,322 · -68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hickman

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.0% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.4pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+56.0 2012: R+34.8 2008: R+26.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+309.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $169,900 WKRMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $174,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-10-28 Listed $179,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $179,900 WKRMLS
• 2025-04-16 Listed $188,000 WKRMLS
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · +426.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.