3318 Shingle Oak Ter

Sarasota, FL 34237

$195,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Built 1971 · Manufactured · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$189
• HOA: −$210
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $4/mo
• Annual: $53/yr
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (7.4% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $180k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tuttle Elementary School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 665 students, 84% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?