3318 Shingle Oak Ter · Sarasota, FL 34237

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1971 5,650 sqft lot $210/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Oakwood Manor, Sarasota's premier gated 55+ resident-owned community, offering an active resort-style lifestyle within the city limits of Sarasota. With owned lots (no land lease), low monthly fees, outstanding amenities, and beautifully maintained grounds, Oakwood Manor is one of the area's most desirable communities. This immaculate, move-in-ready home offers 1056 square ft of comfortable air-conditioned living space and is ideally situated on an oversized corner lot just a short stroll from the clubhouse and pool amenities. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a spacious living area, and a beautifully remodeled kitchen complete with an island

Key facts

• Gated community
• Oversized corner lot
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• OWNED LOTS
• LOW MONTHLY FEES
• OVERSIZED CORNER LOT
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• EXTENDED DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees $2,520
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA (Bill Walsh) with required approval; Monthly HOA fee $210; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, handicap modified access, recreation facilities, spa/hot tub; Association fee covers cable TV, common area taxes, pool, escrow reserves fund, fidelity bond, recreational facilities; Community features: association-owned recreation, buyer approval required, deed restrictions, golf carts allowed, no truck/RV/motorcycle parking, senior community; Pets not allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One level; North-facing
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Metal siding; Membrane and metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built on a 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Storage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Kitchen and family room combo; Living and dining room combo; Thermostat; Window treatments; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4 ($53/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#121 in FL, #1,854 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, commute A; Watch: crime F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tuttle Elementary School (math 39% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,596 of 2,144 statewide, top 75%, 665 students, 84% FRL); Booker Middle School (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 950 students, 76% FRL); Sarasota High School (math 53% / reading 59%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,528 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 63% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sarasota average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.0%/yr); 179 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($192k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $195k implies a 223% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,495 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-36,533
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-51,595
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34237

• Rents YoY: -5.0%
• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,291/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$210
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,799

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $115	-5% $60	+0% $4	+5% $-51	+10% $-106
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-67	+0% $4	+5% $76	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $103	-0.5pp $54	base $4	+0.5pp $-46	+1.0pp $-97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $210 · $2,520/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-05
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,291 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,618 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$327/yr (+$27/mo · 25.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,291
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − HOA: −$2,520
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$765
• After-tax cash flow: $818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sarasota

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #121
• US rank: #1854

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sarasota, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 261,896
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,367
• Household income: $66,762
• Rent vs Own: 52.4% rent · 47.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 902.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.08%
• Current HPI: 370.7565
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.03%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+236.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,300 Public Records
• 2001-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $57,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,291 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.