125 Fiddler Rd

Surgoinsville, TN 37873

$21,900D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Pending · 107 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,708/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax + insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,220/mo
• Annual: $14,637/yr
• Cap rate: 73.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 238.69%
• DSCR: 11.62
• 1% rule: 7.80%
• Cash to close: $6,132

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $20k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($151 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#270 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $22k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 73.1% vs local median 4.5% in Surgoinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.