125 Fiddler Rd · Surgoinsville, TN 37873

$21,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1990 0.89 ac lot $44/sqft · 14% above area Est $19k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

Key facts

• 0.89 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 107 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $22k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $22k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 73.1% vs local median 4.5% in Surgoinsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#270 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawkins County (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #93 of 139 in TN (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Hawkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($151 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Hawkins County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $14k; list at $22k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $19,929 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 73.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 238.69%
• DSCR: 11.62
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $19,226
• List price: $21,900
• Delta: 13.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Fiddler Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	500 (0%)	0mo	$18,500	$37	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.57×
• Total profit: $83,187
• Equity at exit: $12,881

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 31.03×
• Total profit: $184,142
• Equity at exit: $22,630

Cash invested: $6,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37873

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,708 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$115
• Tax from tax record: −$6 /mo · $67/yr
• Insurance: −$9
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $1,220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $164

Max offer price $21,900

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,475
• Closing costs: $657
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

2. 2026-04-13
   price $21,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

3. 2026-03-13
   price $22,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

4. 2026-02-17
   price $23,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

5. 2026-02-06
   price $24,900 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

6. 2026-01-17
   listed $25,400 Active 190-char remark

   Show marketing remark (190 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure could be modified or built onto. Recently surveyed with 0.87 acres and road frontage on two roads. There is no Well or Septic (will need).

7. 2024-03-13
   soldstatus $13,700 Closed 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure COULD be modified or built onto. 1.17 acres with road frontage on two roads Property was previously purchased at County Tax Sale in 2022. Buyer will receive a special warranty deed. Agent is partial owner. Well or Septic can not be verified.

8. 2024-03-03
   status Pending 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure COULD be modified or built onto. 1.17 acres with road frontage on two roads Property was previously purchased at County Tax Sale in 2022. Buyer will receive a special warranty deed. Agent is partial owner. Well or Septic can not be verified.

9. 2024-02-21
   status Active 298-char remark

   Show marketing remark (298 chars)

   The value is in the lot, however existing structure COULD be modified or built onto. 1.17 acres with road frontage on two roads Property was previously purchased at County Tax Sale in 2022. Buyer will receive a special warranty deed. Agent is partial owner. Well or Septic can not be verified.

10. 2024-02-08
    historical Active Under Contract 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    The value is in the lot, however existing structure COULD be modified or built onto. 1.17 acres with road frontage on two roads Property was previously purchased at County Tax Sale in 2022. Buyer will receive a special warranty deed. Agent is partial owner. Well or Septic can not be verified.

11. 2024-02-04
    listed $13,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    The value is in the lot, however existing structure COULD be modified or built onto. 1.17 acres with road frontage on two roads Property was previously purchased at County Tax Sale in 2022. Buyer will receive a special warranty deed. Agent is partial owner. Well or Septic can not be verified.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $67 · $6/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $155 · $13/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 132.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,227
• − Property taxes: −$67
• − Insurance: −$110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,640
• − Management: −$1,640
• − Depreciation: −$637
• Taxable income: $15,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,642
• After-tax cash flow: $10,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawkins County
• NCES district ID: 4701740
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,555
• Composite: 20.45/100
• National rank: #8581
• State rank: #93 of 139 in TN

Livability — Surgoinsville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19003

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,446

Population outlook (Hawkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,226 people
• By 2030: 53,784 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 50,015 · -9.4%
• By 2050: 45,682 · -17.3%
• By 2075: 36,211 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 26,536 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.8) · D 15.2% · R 84.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -68.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.8 2020: R+65.8 2016: R+63.4 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 345.0544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+68.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $21,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $22,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $23,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $24,900 TVRMLS
• 2026-01-17 Listed $25,400 TVRMLS
• 2024-03-13 Sold (MLS) $13,700 TVRMLS
• 2024-03-03 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2024-02-21 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2024-02-08 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2024-02-04 Listed $13,000 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $67 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.