340 NE Crest St #49

Sublimity, OR 97385

$53,000A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Built 1979 · Manufactured · Active · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,121/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax + insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $1,357/mo
• Annual: $16,279/yr
• Cap rate: 37.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.70%
• DSCR: 5.88
• 1% rule: 4.00%
• Cash to close: $14,840

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#102 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sublimity Elementary School (357 students, 27% FRL); Stayton High School (697 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $53k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 37.0% vs local median 2.5% in Sublimity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.