340 NE Crest St #49 · Sublimity, OR 97385

$53,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $104k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has lots of upgrades to include vinyl membrane envelope roof, vinyl windows and heat pump. Spacious living area plus 12X7 add-a-room with slider that opens to large covered front porch and deck. Living room features a mirrored accent wall. Large master bedroom , 2 full baths. Both 2nd and 3rd bedrooms have built in drawers at closet area. Nicely landscaped yard, carport with storage. This is a 55+ community with area for RV storage. Low $485 rent includes water and sewer club house.

Key facts

• Membrane roof
• Abundant storage
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN BRIGHT FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANT STORAGE
• CENTRAL HEATING AND COOLING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• 50 GALLON WATER HEATER
• MEMBRANE ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty: none
• Financial info: No assessments/liens reported
• HOA & community: 55+ community with clubhouse and activities; Park rent includes sewer, water, and RV storage area; Space rent reported as $780/month

Exterior

• Parking: Single carport; Parking for two or more vehicles; 2 garage spaces (carport listed)
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; Built in 1979; Adult park (55+); Park name: Sublim Mobile Vill
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pier foundation; Membrane roof (installed ~11 years ago); Make: Fleetwood, Model: Crownpointe; Size: 14x66
• Exterior features: Partial fenced yard; Covered deck; Mature flowering landscaping; Storage shed; Private-feeling, spacious yard; Located on a quiet dead-end street in a 55+ community

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range (included); Refrigerator included; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (including combined dining area)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank throughout most of the home; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump providing central heating and cooling; Forced air; Electric heat option
• Interior features: High-speed communication available; Open, bright floor plan; Abundant storage
• Laundry & utility: Washing machine included; 50-gallon electric water heater (installed 2022)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Cap rate 37.0% vs local median 2.4% in Sublimity — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#102 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Santiam SD 29J (town): math 75% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #1 of 58 in OR (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Sublimity Elementary School (357 students, 27% FRL); Stayton High School (697 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $53k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $53,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 109.70%
• DSCR: 5.88
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $103,824
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
340 NE Crest St #43	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-8%)	10mo	$79,900	$86	72
340 NE Crest St #71	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-14%)	5mo	$89,000	$103	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $77,818
• Equity at exit: $7,902

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.06×
• Total profit: $179,034
• Equity at exit: $4,582

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97385

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,121 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax from tax record: −$19 /mo · $230/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $1,357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $404

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,387	-5% $1,372	+0% $1,357	+5% $1,342	+10% $1,327
Rent	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,273	+0% $1,357	+5% $1,440	+10% $1,524
Rate	-1.0pp $1,383	-0.5pp $1,370	base $1,357	+0.5pp $1,343	+1.0pp $1,329

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $53,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $230 · $19/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $514 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 123.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$230
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,036
• − Management: −$2,036
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $16,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,930
• After-tax cash flow: $12,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Santiam SD 29J
• NCES district ID: 4100020
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,619
• Composite: 63.96/100
• National rank: #584
• State rank: #1 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sublimity

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #5418

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sublimity, OR
• Population (ZIP): 3,876

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.76%
• Current HPI: 303.7987
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+140.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $53,000 WVMLS
• 2016-10-20 Sold (MLS) $14,900 WVMLS
• 2016-10-12 Pending — WVMLS
• 2016-09-12 Listed $14,900 WVMLS
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2018): $230 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.