131 W 2nd St

Newburg, MO 65550

$73,900B+

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,994 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,129/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $381/mo
• Annual: $4,572/yr
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.10%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $20,692

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $74k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $381 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $69k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($511 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#758 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburg R-II (rural): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #299 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.