3169 Foxtail Ln

Evans, CO 80620

$99,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Built 2014 · Manufactured · Active · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $871/mo
• Annual: $10,455/yr
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.72%
• DSCR: 2.68
• 1% rule: 1.99%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.