3169 Foxtail Ln · Evans, CO 80620

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,186 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 Est $95k · at est. ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MAJOR PRICE REDUCTION!! MOTIVATED SELLER!!! Welcome to Your Ideal Home in Cave Creek Community, this single mobile home built in 2014 offers a blend of modern living and community charm. Boasting three bedrooms, two bathrooms, central heating and air conditioning ensure a comfortable living environment year-round. The home features a laundry area with washer and dryer connections for added convenience. This residence is designed for comfort and convenience giving access to community club house, pool and exercise room, storage shed, playground close by, and more! Schedule your showing today!!

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Laundry area
• All appliances

Tags

• ALL APPLIANCES
• LAUNDRY AREA
• OUTSIDE STORAGE SHED
• FITNESS CENTER
• POOL
• NEARBY PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No designated parking features
• Utilities: City water (meter installed); Public sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.8% in Evans — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#104 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta (urban): math 15% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #71 of 86 in CO (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.99% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.72%
• DSCR: 2.68
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3116 Foxtail Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,186 (0%)	8mo	$97,000	$82	88
3340 Yucca Cir	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	3mo	$72,000	$59	87
4210 Cedar Ln #185	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	4mo	$99,500	$82	86
2920 Foxtail Ln #334	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	1mo	$86,000	$71	85
3077 Yarrow Cir	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-4%)	3mo	$91,000	$80	85
3308 Antelope Way #279	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	8mo	$95,000	$78	83
4324 Buffalo Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	7mo	$65,000	$53	82
4304 Wapiti Way #249	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	9mo	$75,000	$61	76
3013 Foxtail Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	19mo	$96,000	$79	71
3366 Bluegrass Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+4%)	15mo	$119,000	$97	64
3400 Yucca Cir #218	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	7mo	$120,000	$89	64
3301 Coyote Ln #26	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+13%)	3mo	$115,000	$86	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $33,710
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $78,630
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80620

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,969 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2846 Arbor Dr #2898 Evans, CO	2.0	1.5–2.0	1327	$1,738	$1.31	14d	3	0.78mi
3770 Ponderosa Ct #1 Evans, CO	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,650	$1.58	23d	1	0.93mi
1751 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	2.0	1.5	841	$1,750	$2.08	14d	1	1.21mi
2506 32nd St Evans, CO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,025	$1.75	23d	1	1.23mi
3301 Abbey Rd Evans, CO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	913	$2,112	$2.31	14d	10	1.25mi
1725 Rowan Ln Evans, CO	3.0	1.5	1190	$2,099	$1.76	14d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 453-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,890
• − Management: −$1,890
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $9,441
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,266
• After-tax cash flow: $8,189/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greeleyschool District No. 6 In The County Of Weld And Sta
• NCES district ID: 0804410
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,417
• Composite: 19.99/100
• National rank: #8667
• State rank: #71 of 86 in CO

Livability — Evans

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #9005

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Evans, CO
• County: Weld County · 332,652 people
• City population: 20,798
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• Population (ZIP): 20,798
• Household income: $73,590
• Rent vs Own: 32.5% rent · 67.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 45% Two or more races 17% Black 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.36%
• Current HPI: 330.6379
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.78%
• Metro: Greeley, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-20.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $99,000 IRES
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $93,000 IRES
• 2024-03-10 Contingent — IRES
• 2024-01-22 Price Changed $110,000 IRES
• 2023-12-01 Listed $125,000 IRES