1548 Valencia Dr

Lillian, AL 36549

$294,000D-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 100 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,045/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax + insurance: −$234
• HOA: −$74
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-235/mo
• Annual: $-2,816/yr
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $82,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (30.5% below list).
• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.