1548 Valencia Dr · Lillian, AL 36549

$294,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1998 0.30 ac lot $178/sqft · 19% above area Est $312k · 6% under $74/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED! Still offering a Home Warranty and $5,000 in Buyer's incentives!!! Space, sunshine, and southern charm merge in this 2,100 sq. ft. brick home. Perfectly situated on a rare double lot, this property offers the luxury of elbow room and privacy rarely found in a coastal community. Inside, the open-concept design impresses with vaulted ceilings and a seamless blend of living and dining areas. The kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee or casual entertaining. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious layout and an ensuite bath with a double-sink vanity, walk-in shower, and a garden tub. Two additional well-appointed bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. For the nature lover, this home offers something truly unique: a bright sunroom that leads directly into a dedicated indoor greenhouse. Bring the outdoors in year-round, then step outside to your backyard featuring a lemon tree, a wooden storage shed, and a well-maintained yard with endless possibilities. Practicality meets peace of mind with a 2-car garage plus a covered carport for boat or vehicle storage, along with included hurricane shutters. Located in the amenity-rich Spanish Cove community, you’re buying a lifestyle. Quarterly dues ($221) cover trash and yard debris while providing exclusive access to a private beach on the bay, fishing pier, year-round pool, fitness center, two clubhouses, and tennis/pickleball courts. With the Lillian boat launch nearby and the sugar-white sands of Perdido Key and Pensacola Naval Base just a short drive away, this is the coastal home you’ve been waiting for. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Double lot
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ENSUITE BATH
• INDOOR GREENHOUSE
• BACKYARD ORCHARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-235 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 4.1% in Lillian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#97 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Elberta Elementary School (math 47% / reading 65%, grade C+, #83 of 627 statewide, top 13%, 884 students, 58% FRL); Elberta High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #47 of 305 statewide, top 17%, 784 students, 60% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 38% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,469 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,293
• List price: $294,000
• Delta: -5.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2870 Avenida Alberto	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-7%)	5mo	$277,000	$180	59
2578 Manuel Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+6%)	4mo	$259,000	$147	58
2760 Manuel Cir	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,512 (-9%)	1mo	$300,000	$198	56
3109 Pine Wood Cir	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+1%)	6mo	$310,000	$185	55
2881 Eslava Cir	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,872 (+13%)	2mo	$342,000	$183	53
3256 Vista Del Mar Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+9%)	7mo	$329,000	$183	49
3173 Vista Del Mar Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+9%)	4mo	$330,000	$183	49
3203 Camino Real Loop	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (+7%)	4mo	$296,000	$167	46
3089 Camino Real Loop	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,806 (+9%)	7mo	$295,000	$163	41
3086 Camino Real Loop	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,846 (+12%)	1mo	$316,000	$171	40
1277 Rio Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-14%)	7mo	$269,000	$189	37
3090 Camino Real Loop	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,895 (+14%)	5mo	$285,000	$150	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-62,666
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-74,140
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36549

• Home prices YoY: -7.6%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,340/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$74
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,342

Max offer price $252,551

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-68	-5% $-151	+0% $-235	+5% $-318	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-315	+0% $-235	+5% $-154	+10% $-73
Rate	-1.0pp $-87	-0.5pp $-160	base $-235	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-388

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12411 County Road 91 Lillian, AL	4.0	2.0	1232	$1,750	$1.42	15d	1	1.16mi
32042 Terranova Loop Lillian, AL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $74 · $888/yr
• Likely covers: trashpoolgym

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $294,000 Pending 100 DOM
2. 2026-05-16
   price $294,000 1729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1729 chars)

   JUST REDUCED! Still offering a Home Warranty and $5,000 in Buyer's incentives!!! Space, sunshine, and southern charm merge in this 2,100 sq. ft. brick home. Perfectly situated on a rare double lot, this property offers the luxury of elbow room and privacy rarely found in a coastal community. Inside, the open-concept design impresses with vaulted ceilings and a seamless blend of living and dining areas. The kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee or casual entertaining. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious layout and an ensuite bath with a double-sink vanity, walk-in shower, and a garden tub. Two additional well-appointed bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. For the nature lover, this home offers something truly unique: a bright sunroom that leads directly into a dedicated indoor greenhouse. Bring the outdoors in year-round, then step outside to your backyard featuring a lemon tree, a wooden storage shed, and a well-maintained yard with endless possibilities. Practicality meets peace of mind with a 2-car garage plus a covered carport for boat or vehicle storage, along with included hurricane shutters. Located in the amenity-rich Spanish Cove community, you’re buying a lifestyle. Quarterly dues ($221) cover trash and yard debris while providing exclusive access to a private beach on the bay, fishing pier, year-round pool, fitness center, two clubhouses, and tennis/pickleball courts. With the Lillian boat launch nearby and the sugar-white sands of Perdido Key and Pensacola Naval Base just a short drive away, this is the coastal home you’ve been waiting for. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

3. 2026-03-17
   price $299,000 1729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1729 chars)

   JUST REDUCED! Still offering a Home Warranty and $5,000 in Buyer's incentives!!! Space, sunshine, and southern charm merge in this 2,100 sq. ft. brick home. Perfectly situated on a rare double lot, this property offers the luxury of elbow room and privacy rarely found in a coastal community. Inside, the open-concept design impresses with vaulted ceilings and a seamless blend of living and dining areas. The kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee or casual entertaining. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious layout and an ensuite bath with a double-sink vanity, walk-in shower, and a garden tub. Two additional well-appointed bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. For the nature lover, this home offers something truly unique: a bright sunroom that leads directly into a dedicated indoor greenhouse. Bring the outdoors in year-round, then step outside to your backyard featuring a lemon tree, a wooden storage shed, and a well-maintained yard with endless possibilities. Practicality meets peace of mind with a 2-car garage plus a covered carport for boat or vehicle storage, along with included hurricane shutters. Located in the amenity-rich Spanish Cove community, you’re buying a lifestyle. Quarterly dues ($221) cover trash and yard debris while providing exclusive access to a private beach on the bay, fishing pier, year-round pool, fitness center, two clubhouses, and tennis/pickleball courts. With the Lillian boat launch nearby and the sugar-white sands of Perdido Key and Pensacola Naval Base just a short drive away, this is the coastal home you’ve been waiting for. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

4. 2026-02-18
   listed $304,900 Active 1729-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1729 chars)

   JUST REDUCED! Still offering a Home Warranty and $5,000 in Buyer's incentives!!! Space, sunshine, and southern charm merge in this 2,100 sq. ft. brick home. Perfectly situated on a rare double lot, this property offers the luxury of elbow room and privacy rarely found in a coastal community. Inside, the open-concept design impresses with vaulted ceilings and a seamless blend of living and dining areas. The kitchen features a convenient breakfast bar perfect for morning coffee or casual entertaining. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, offering a spacious layout and an ensuite bath with a double-sink vanity, walk-in shower, and a garden tub. Two additional well-appointed bedrooms provide plenty of space for guests or a home office. For the nature lover, this home offers something truly unique: a bright sunroom that leads directly into a dedicated indoor greenhouse. Bring the outdoors in year-round, then step outside to your backyard featuring a lemon tree, a wooden storage shed, and a well-maintained yard with endless possibilities. Practicality meets peace of mind with a 2-car garage plus a covered carport for boat or vehicle storage, along with included hurricane shutters. Located in the amenity-rich Spanish Cove community, you’re buying a lifestyle. Quarterly dues ($221) cover trash and yard debris while providing exclusive access to a private beach on the bay, fishing pier, year-round pool, fitness center, two clubhouses, and tennis/pickleball courts. With the Lillian boat launch nearby and the sugar-white sands of Perdido Key and Pensacola Naval Base just a short drive away, this is the coastal home you’ve been waiting for. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

5. 2021-08-09
   soldstatus $250,000
6. 2021-08-06
   soldstatus $250,000 1316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1316 chars)

   Gorgeous home just minutes away from the Lillian boat launch! A Brick 3 bedroom/2 bath Spanish Cove home with large bedrooms and master suite with garden tub, walk in shower, and double sink vanity. Kitchen has a beautiful ceramic tile backsplash, hardwood cabinets, and a breakfast bar that is open to the dining area. This house has an open floor plan with a spacious dining and living area with vaulted ceilings and ceiling fans throughout. The Bama room/sunroom is bright and cheery and is the perfect spot for holiday entertaining. This space also has an indoor greenhouse and planting area for the avid gardener. This property is on 2 lots and has a large 2 car garage with covered carport and a driveway to park up to 6 cars. The backyard has green space behind the lot to enjoy peace, quiet, and privacy. Hurricane shutters are included. Come tour this gem and you'll never want to leave. Become a member of the highly desired community of Spanish Cove, where ownership lets you enjoy all of the amenities: the beach, the outdoor pool, 2 clubhouses, tennis courts, fishing pier, fitness center, and laundry facilities. This 24 hour secured property is close to beaches, shopping, the Pensacola Naval base, public boat ramps, and piers in Lillian. Come see your spacious new relaxing getaway or your new home.

7. 2021-06-30
   listed $269,400 1316-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1316 chars)

   Gorgeous home just minutes away from the Lillian boat launch! A Brick 3 bedroom/2 bath Spanish Cove home with large bedrooms and master suite with garden tub, walk in shower, and double sink vanity. Kitchen has a beautiful ceramic tile backsplash, hardwood cabinets, and a breakfast bar that is open to the dining area. This house has an open floor plan with a spacious dining and living area with vaulted ceilings and ceiling fans throughout. The Bama room/sunroom is bright and cheery and is the perfect spot for holiday entertaining. This space also has an indoor greenhouse and planting area for the avid gardener. This property is on 2 lots and has a large 2 car garage with covered carport and a driveway to park up to 6 cars. The backyard has green space behind the lot to enjoy peace, quiet, and privacy. Hurricane shutters are included. Come tour this gem and you'll never want to leave. Become a member of the highly desired community of Spanish Cove, where ownership lets you enjoy all of the amenities: the beach, the outdoor pool, 2 clubhouses, tennis courts, fishing pier, fitness center, and laundry facilities. This 24 hour secured property is close to beaches, shopping, the Pensacola Naval base, public boat ramps, and piers in Lillian. Come see your spacious new relaxing getaway or your new home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,340 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$1,340
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − HOA: −$888
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$8,109
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,946
• After-tax cash flow: $-869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lillian

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #11371

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 6,152
• Population (ZIP): 6,152

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.45%
• Current HPI: 285.5902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+9.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $294,000 BCAR
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $299,000 BCAR
• 2026-02-18 Listed $304,900 BCAR
• 2021-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-06 Sold (MLS) $250,000 BCAR
• 2021-06-30 Listed $269,400 BCAR

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,340 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.