40619 Corte Los Pajaros

Indio, CA 92203

$539,000D

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,569 sqft · Built 2004 · SingleFamily · Active · 110 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,420/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$628
• HOA: −$397
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$928
• Net cashflow: $-360/mo
• Annual: $-4,316/yr
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $475k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $442k (18.0% below list).
• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $442k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Reagan Elementary (834 students, 53% FRL); Desert Ridge Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 1,030 students, 81% FRL); Shadow Hills High (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 1,751 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $91k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Indio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $4,420/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 565% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?