40619 Corte Los Pajaros · Indio, CA 92203

$539,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,569 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 110 Days on market

Built 2004 8,712 sqft lot $210/sqft · 12% below area Est $611k · 12% under $397/mo HOA · 9% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing San Miguel Model Located on a great corner lot in the GORGEOUS gated community of Sun City Shadow Hills. 2596 Sq. Ft. of living space with Living Room, Family Room/Formal Dining Area, eat in Kitchen and a Den/office. Primary Suite with Bath, Walk in Closet and great access to the outside. Secondary bedroom is down an extended hallway with its own private entrance. 2 Car Garage plus Golf Car Garage. .. Large rear yard with covered Patio and Water Feature make this an entertainers dream. SCSH offers numerous clubs, organizations, entertainment, trips, and all the Golf, Tennis and Pickleball you can imagine.

Key facts

• Living room
• Eat in kitchen
• Family room

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LIVING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• FORMAL DINING AREA
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $539k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $475k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $442k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $442k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.3% in Indio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#927 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Reagan Elementary (834 students, 53% FRL); Desert Ridge Academy (math 24% / reading 75%, grade C, #98 of 498 statewide, top 21%, 1,030 students, 81% FRL); Shadow Hills High (math 30% / reading 53%, grade F, #498 of 1,170 statewide, top 43%, 1,751 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.6%/yr); 447 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,420/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($97k/yr) (locally 565% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $91k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $441,987 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $611,289
• List price: $539,000
• Delta: -11.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40414 Calle Santa Monica	0.39mi	2/2.5	2,569 (0%)	1mo	$680,000	$265	81
80664 Camino Santa Elise	0.35mi	2/2.5	2,569 (0%)	8mo	$556,200	$217	77
80735 Camino Santa Elise	0.44mi	2/2.5	2,554 (-1%)	4mo	$533,000	$209	75
39-705 Everglades Dr	0.56mi	2/2.5	2,548 (-1%)	2mo	$695,990	$273	71
80630 Camino San Gregorio	0.30mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,376 (-8%)	1mo	$527,750	$222	68
80465 Camino San Mateo	0.21mi	3/2.5 (+1)	2,376 (-8%)	9mo	$820,000	$345	65
40111 Camino Montecito	0.46mi	3/3.0 (+1)	2,376 (-8%)	8mo	$615,000	$259	53
81138 Avenida Lorena	0.67mi	2/2.5	2,230 (-13%)	3mo	$710,000	$318	44
81083 Avenida Tres Lagunas	0.68mi	2/2.5	2,230 (-13%)	4mo	$615,000	$276	43
81050 Avenida Sombra	0.64mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,868 (+12%)	1mo	$1,325,000	$462	41
81071 Avenida Sombra	0.65mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,868 (+12%)	1mo	$593,000	$207	40
81157 Avenida Los Circos	0.72mi	3/3.5 (+1)	2,868 (+12%)	6mo	$850,000	$296	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-86,744
• Equity at exit: $80,367

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $1,870
• Equity at exit: $46,603

Cash invested: $150,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92203

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,420 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,838/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$397
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$928
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,875

Max offer price $475,470

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-207	+0% $-360	+5% $-512	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-709	-5% $-534	+0% $-360	+5% $-185	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-88	-0.5pp $-223	base $-360	+0.5pp $-499	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,750
• Closing costs: $16,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
80465 Camino San Mateo Indio, CA	3.0	2.5	2376	$7,500	$3.16	45d	1	0.21mi
80632 Avenida San Ignacio Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	2569	$5,500	$2.14	7d	1	0.21mi
80632 Avenida San Ignacio Indio, CA	2.0	3.0	2569	$5,500	$2.14	45d	1	0.21mi
80646 Avenida San Ignacio Indio, CA	3.0	2.5	2376	$6,600	$2.78	45d	1	0.22mi
80633 Camino San Gregorio Indio, CA	3.0	2.5	2376	$5,600	$2.36	7d	1	0.27mi
80592 Avenida Santa Carmen Indio, CA	2.0	2.5	1753	$2,700	$1.54	45d	1	0.27mi
80188 Camino Santa Elise Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	2147	$2,975	$1.39	45d	1	0.29mi
80635 Camino Santa Elise Indio, CA	3.0	2.5	2376	$5,450	$2.29	45d	1	0.29mi
80741 Avenida Santa Carmen Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	2147	$5,000	$2.33	45d	1	0.30mi
80181 Camino San Mateo Unit NA Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	1823	$3,200	$1.76	45d	1	0.30mi
80586 Camino Santa Juliana Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	2147	$4,500	$2.10	45d	1	0.36mi
80598 Camino Santa Juliana Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,888	$1.50	26d	1	0.37mi
40380 Camino Montecito Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	2147	$2,950	$1.37	45d	1	0.37mi
80818 Avenida San Ignacio Indio, CA	3.0	2.5	2376	$5,500	$2.31	45d	1	0.38mi
80818 Avenida San Ignacio Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2376	$5,500	$2.31	7d	1	0.38mi
80081 Camino Santa Elise Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	2147	$2,450	$1.14	45d	1	0.40mi
80097 Avenida Santa Olivia Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	2147	$2,800	$1.30	45d	1	0.42mi
40856 Calle Desierto Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2112	$2,500	$1.18	25d	1	0.59mi
81126 Avenida Lorena Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2112	$6,000	$2.84	26d	1	0.65mi
81083 Avenida Tres Lagunas Indio, CA	2.0	2.5	2230	$3,600	$1.61	45d	1	0.67mi
81157 Avenida Sombra Indio, CA	3.0	3.5	2868	$6,200	$2.16	45d	1	0.71mi
40087 Corte Azul Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	1763	$2,800	$1.59	18d	1	0.79mi
81074 Avenida Neblina Indio, CA	3.0	3.5	2966	$6,500	$2.19	45d	1	0.82mi
81520 Camino Los Milagros Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2010	$5,700	$2.84	45d	1	1.08mi
81566 Avenida Sombra Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	1763	$2,245	$1.27	7d	1	1.09mi
79-131 Sangria Ct Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	2018	$3,500	$1.73	45d	1	1.13mi
81562 Camino Los Milagros Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2112	$6,000	$2.84	45d	1	1.13mi
81592 Camino El Triunfo Indio, CA	3.0	3.5	2966	$7,000	$2.36	45d	1	1.15mi
42655 Delhi Pl Bermuda Dunes, CA	3.0	2.5	1988	$8,000	$4.02	20d	1	1.16mi
81465 Avenida Montura Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2433	$6,000	$2.47	45d	1	1.22mi
42480 Buccaneer Ct Bermuda Dunes, CA	3.0	3.0	3231	$10,000	$3.10	45d	1	1.23mi
80571 Hoylake Dr Indio, CA	2.0	2.5	2172	$4,200	$1.93	18d	1	1.25mi
81211 Camino Lampazos Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	1756	$3,375	$1.92	18d	1	1.25mi
39613 Taffala Dr Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	1904	$3,595	$1.89	26d	1	1.33mi
43387 Saint Andrews Dr Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	1766	$4,500	$2.55	45d	1	1.37mi
80085 Peak Forest Dr Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	1954	$2,995	$1.53	1d	1	1.39mi
81672 Avenida Viesca Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	1756	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	1.39mi
81876 Camino Los Milagros Indio, CA	3.0	3.0	2014	$7,500	$3.72	45d	1	1.41mi
37853 Avon St Indio, CA	3.0	2.0	2384	$2,895	$1.21	26d	1	1.41mi
43388 Saint Andrews Dr Indio, CA	2.0	2.0	1917	$3,500	$1.83	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $397 · $4,764/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $539,000 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $539,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $539,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $539,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $539,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $539,000 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $539,000 Active 98 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $539,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $539,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $539,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $539,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $539,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $539,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $539,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $549,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Amazing San Miguel Model Located on a great corner lot in the GORGEOUS gated community of Sun City Shadow Hills. 2596 Sq. Ft. of living space with Living Room, Family Room/Formal Dining Area, eat in Kitchen and a Den/office. Primary Suite with Bath, Walk in Closet and great access to the outside. Secondary bedroom is down an extended hallway with its own private entrance. 2 Car Garage plus Golf Car Garage. .. Large rear yard with covered Patio and Water Feature make this an entertainers dream. SCSH offers numerous clubs, organizations, entertainment, trips, and all the Golf, Tennis and Pickleball you can imagine.

16. 2026-03-15
    price $599,000 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Amazing San Miguel Model Located on a great corner lot in the GORGEOUS gated community of Sun City Shadow Hills. 2596 Sq. Ft. of living space with Living Room, Family Room/Formal Dining Area, eat in Kitchen and a Den/office. Primary Suite with Bath, Walk in Closet and great access to the outside. Secondary bedroom is down an extended hallway with its own private entrance. 2 Car Garage plus Golf Car Garage. .. Large rear yard with covered Patio and Water Feature make this an entertainers dream. SCSH offers numerous clubs, organizations, entertainment, trips, and all the Golf, Tennis and Pickleball you can imagine.

17. 2026-03-01
    listed $629,900 Active 620-char remark

    Show marketing remark (620 chars)

    Amazing San Miguel Model Located on a great corner lot in the GORGEOUS gated community of Sun City Shadow Hills. 2596 Sq. Ft. of living space with Living Room, Family Room/Formal Dining Area, eat in Kitchen and a Den/office. Primary Suite with Bath, Walk in Closet and great access to the outside. Secondary bedroom is down an extended hallway with its own private entrance. 2 Car Garage plus Golf Car Garage. .. Large rear yard with covered Patio and Water Feature make this an entertainers dream. SCSH offers numerous clubs, organizations, entertainment, trips, and all the Golf, Tennis and Pickleball you can imagine.

18. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $515,000
19. 2006-07-31
    historical
20. 2006-03-20
    listed $519,900
21. 2006-02-25
    historical
22. 2006-01-24
    listed $536,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,838 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,838 · $403/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥114°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,038
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,192
• − Property taxes: −$4,838
• − Insurance: −$2,695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,243
• − Management: −$4,243
• − HOA: −$4,764
• − Depreciation: −$15,680
• Taxable loss: −$13,617
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,268
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,047/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Indio

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #927
• US rank: #24244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Indio, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 100,560
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 34,735
• Household income: $97,311
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 565.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 41% Two or more races 29% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 48%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 33% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.51%
• Current HPI: 295.6456
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.64%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $549,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $599,000 GPSMLS
• 2026-03-01 Listed $629,900 GPSMLS
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-31 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2006-03-20 Listed $519,900 GPSMLS
• 2006-02-25 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 2006-01-24 Listed $536,700 GPSMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,838 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.