9950 E Bay Harbor Dr

Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$4,200,000F

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,566 sqft · Built 1952 · MultiFamily · Active · 490 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,160/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,025
• Tax + insurance: −$5,606
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,814
• Net cashflow: $-13,285/mo
• Annual: $-159,417/yr
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.43%
• Cash to close: $1,176,000

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $4.20M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-159k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-3k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.85M (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.82M (56.8% below list).
• It's been on market 490 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.82M (56.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $286k of equity ($29k loan paydown + $257k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.00M (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3.15M; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$458k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $18,160/mo this rent would consume 243% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.