9950 E Bay Harbor Dr · Bay Harbor Islands, FL 33154

$4,200,000

8 bd · 5.0 ba · 4,566 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 490 Days on market

Built 1952

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Cash flow +3.4/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Income-producing 4-unit STR multifamily with prime redevelopment potential in Bay Harbor Islands, directly across from the prestigious LA MARE project. This property generates steady rental income and is zoned for an 8-unit luxury condominium development. Situated just minutes from Bal Harbour Shops, pristine beaches, and top-rated schools, this is a rare opportunity for investors or developers looking to maximize value in a high-demand area. Property Highlights: ? 4-unit short-term rental multifamily – Fully operational & income-generating ? Zoning allows for up to 8 luxury condo residences ? Prime location – Steps from shopping, dining, and top schools ? Strong upside potential – Ideal for investors or boutique developers

Key facts

• 4 unit multifamily
• Steps from shopping
• Steady rental income

Tags

• 4 UNIT MULTIFAMILY
• REDEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
• STEADY RENTAL INCOME
• ZONED FOR 8 UNIT DEVELOPMENT
• PRIME LOCATION
• STEPS FROM SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax information available (2024)
• Financial info: Rent includes cable TV
• HOA & community: Association fees billed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: 8 parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: 2-story residence; Resale property
• Exterior features: Lot smaller than a quarter acre; Zoned 4500

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Central heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $4.20M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-159k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-3k/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.85M (55.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.82M (56.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.82M (56.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#13 in FL, #362 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruth K. Broad Bay Harbor K-8 Center (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #198 of 2,144 statewide, top 10%, 1,249 students, 29% FRL); Miami Beach Nautilus Middle School (math 46% / reading 58%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 918 students, 44% FRL); Miami Beach Senior High School (math 21% / reading 48%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 2,175 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 64% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 523 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $18,160/mo this rent would consume 243% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 774% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $286k of equity ($29k loan paydown + $257k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$458k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 490 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.70M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $1.00M (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $3.15M; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,816,000 (56.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
4. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
5. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
6. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
10. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.43% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.12%
• DSCR: 0.42
• GRM: 19.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.12% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $343,739
• Equity at exit: $2,673,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $1,568,858
• Equity at exit: $4,876,616

Cash invested: $1,176,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33154

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 523
• Price-to-rent: 77.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $18,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$22,025
• Tax from tax record: −$3,429 /mo · $41,152/yr
• Insurance: −$1,750
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,814
• Net cashflow: $-13,285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $34,976

Max offer price $1,853,198

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10,907	-5% $-12,096	+0% $-13,285	+5% $-14,473	+10% $-15,662
Rent	-10% $-14,719	-5% $-14,002	+0% $-13,285	+5% $-12,567	+10% $-11,850
Rate	-1.0pp $-11,170	-0.5pp $-12,216	base $-13,285	+0.5pp $-14,373	+1.0pp $-15,480

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	2	$18,160
Total (4 units)			$18,160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,050,000
• Closing costs: $126,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
124 Park Dr Bal Harbour, FL	7.0	7.5	6169	$52,500	$8.51	24d	1	0.36mi
9221 E Bay Harbor Dr Unit 511/512 Bay Harbor Islands, FL	7.0	7.5	4565	$27,500	$6.02	1d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 490 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 487 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 486 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 485 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 484 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 482 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 478 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 477 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,200,000 Active 476 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 473 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 472 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 471 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 470 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,200,000 Active 469 DOM
15. 2025-11-21
    price $4,200,000
16. 2025-09-18
    price $4,600,000
17. 2025-02-13
    listed $5,200,000 Active
18. 2025-01-28
    listed $5,200,000 Active 761-char remark

    Show marketing remark (761 chars)

    Income-producing 4-unit STR multifamily with prime redevelopment potential in Bay Harbor Islands, directly across from the prestigious LA MARE project. This property generates steady rental income and is zoned for an 8-unit luxury condominium development. Situated just minutes from Bal Harbour Shops, pristine beaches, and top-rated schools, this is a rare opportunity for investors or developers looking to maximize value in a high-demand area. Property Highlights: ? 4-unit short-term rental multifamily – Fully operational & income-generating ? Zoning allows for up to 8 luxury condo residences ? Prime location – Steps from shopping, dining, and top schools ? Strong upside potential – Ideal for investors or boutique developers

19. 2025-01-10
    soldstatus $3,150,000
20. 1993-02-02
    soldstatus $200,000
21. 1993-02-02
    soldstatus $200,000
22. 1987-09-01
    soldstatus $185,000
23. 1979-12-01
    soldstatus $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $41,152 · $3,429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $41,152 · $3,429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $217,920
• − Mortgage interest: −$235,265
• − Property taxes: −$41,152
• − Insurance: −$26,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$17,434
• − Management: −$17,434
• − Depreciation: −$122,182
• Taxable loss: −$241,665
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$58,000
• After-tax cash flow: $-101,417/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bay Harbor Islands

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #362

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay Harbor Islands, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 14,435
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,572
• Household income: $89,563
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 774.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 25% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 12% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 41% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.12%
• Current HPI: 454.1747
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.30%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2370.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $4,200,000 MARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $4,600,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Listed $5,200,000 MARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Listed $5,200,000 MARMLS
• 2025-01-10 Sold (Public Records) $3,150,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 1987-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records
• 1979-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $41,152 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.