512 Lapsley St

Selma, AL 36701

$44,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,071 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,083/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$231
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $565/mo
• Annual: $6,780/yr
• Cap rate: 21.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.03%
• DSCR: 3.45
• 1% rule: 2.46%
• Cash to close: $12,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $44k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $565 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $44k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $43k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $304 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#407 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Selma City (town): math 2% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #118 of 129 in AL (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 84% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #601 of 627 statewide, top 98%, 137 students, 92% FRL); Selma High School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #265 of 305 statewide, top 89%, 719 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools at 89% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Dallas County population projected at -36% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 7.5% in Selma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.